Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00
9d 19h to kick-offBolton Wanderers – Bristol City
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Bolton Wanderers
- 42%
- Draw
- 31%
- Bristol City
- 27%
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.41 | 3.19 | 3.68 |
- Total goals
- 2.50
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Bolton Wanderers
42% Bolton Wanderers to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 12th
- Bolton Wanderers attack v Bristol City defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 17th
- Bolton Wanderers defence v Bristol City attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.07 vs +0.53
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.39 – 1.11
- Bolton Wanderers v Bristol City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bolton Wanderers | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.40 · 11th | 1.32 · 13th |
| xGA / match | 1.69 · 21st | (better) 1.35 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -0.30 · 17th | (better) -0.03 · 11th |
| xPts / match | 1.15 · 17th | (better) 1.44 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.07 | (better) +0.53 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Bolton Wanderers clean sheet
- 30%
- Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.1%
- 2:1
- 10.5%
- 1:0
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bolton Wanderers sample
- 11 matches
- Bristol City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bolton Wanderers
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Bristol City
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.