Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 13:30
9d 16h to kick-offNorwich City – Watford
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Norwich City
- 51%
- Draw
- 28%
- Watford
- 21%
| Norwich City | Draw | Watford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.96 | 3.52 | 4.87 |
- Total goals
- 2.69
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Norwich City
51% Norwich City to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 24th
- Norwich City attack v Watford defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 19th
- Norwich City defence v Watford attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.89 vs -0.84
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.66 – 1.03
- Norwich City v Watford
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Norwich City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.47 · 10th | 1.13 · 18th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.60 · 17th | 1.88 · 24th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.14 · 14th | -0.75 · 23rd |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.26 · 14th | 0.88 · 24th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.89 | (better) -0.84 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Norwich City clean sheet
- 33%
- Norwich City 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.5%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 9.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Norwich City sample
- 20 matches
- Watford sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Norwich City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Watford
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.