Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
2d 18h to kick-offStoke City – Bristol City
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Top odds updated 21 October, 18:00
What the model expects
- Stoke City
- 31%
- Draw
- 33%
- Bristol City
- 36%
| Stoke City | Draw | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.25 | 3.03 | 2.76 |
- Total goals
- 2.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
Stoke City
- Model
- 30.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 40.9%
- Probability gap
- −10.2 pp
- Edge
- −29.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.25
- Market odds
- 2.30 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.42
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.2%
-
Draw
- Model
- 33.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.7%
- Probability gap
- +5.3 pp
- Edge
- +12.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.03
- Market odds
- 3.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.18
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.2%
-
Bristol City
- Model
- 36.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 31.4%
- Probability gap
- +4.9 pp
- Edge
- +8.7%
- Fair odds
- 2.76
- Market odds
- 3.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.90
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.2%
Outcomes with an edge
Stoke City not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Stoke City at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Bristol City to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Biggest edge
Stoke City not to score
Model 29.9% vs. bookmaker 25.0%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Bristol City
36% Bristol City to win
- Attack
- 17th vs 21st
- Bristol City attack v Stoke City defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 24th
- Bristol City defence v Stoke City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.53 vs -1.01
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.11 – 1.21
- Stoke City v Bristol City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Stoke City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.90 · 24th | (better) 1.32 · 13th |
| xGA / match | 1.71 · 22nd | (better) 1.35 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -0.81 · 24th | (better) -0.03 · 11th |
| xPts / match | 0.91 · 22nd | (better) 1.44 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.01 | (better) +0.53 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Bristol City clean sheet
- 30%
- Bristol City 2+ goals
- 35%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.1%
- 0:0
- 10.0%
- 0:1
- 9.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Stoke City sample
- 20 matches
- Bristol City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Stoke City
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Bristol City
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 3 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.