Middlesbrough 2:2 Cardiff City: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 13:30

Full time

Match report · Championship

Middlesbrough Home 2.71 xG · 36 shots

Cardiff City Away 0.85 xG · 7 shots

22 Middlesbrough had the better chances, but it finished level

Middlesbrough were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Middlesbrough's attack: 2.71 xG against 2.07 projected (+0.64). Cardiff City produced 0.85 xG against 1.19 projected (−0.34).

Goals

22' Jack Moylan Cardiff City · 0.10 xG chance 0–1
45' Ollie Tanner Cardiff City · 0.03 xG chance 0–2
58' Tommy Conway Middlesbrough · 0.33 xG chance 1–2
61' Will Lankshear Middlesbrough · 0.04 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Middlesbrough: 57%
Draw: 24% What happened
Cardiff City: 19%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Middlesbrough 2.07 2.71 +0.64

Cardiff City 1.19 0.85 -0.34

Middlesbrough produced 0.64 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Middlesbrough Cardiff City

Shots: 36; 7
On target: 12; 3
Inside the box: 23; 5
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.12
Open play xG: 2.36; 0.53
Set-piece xG: 0.36; 0.34
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.71 for Middlesbrough and 0.85 for Cardiff City.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

43 shots · 3.59 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Middlesbrough
Cardiff City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Middlesbrough

1.96 xG created 1.15 xGA

W 2.53 created, 1.03 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
W 2.07 created, 1.62 conceded against Norwich City
D 1.52 created, 1.69 conceded against Millwall
D 2.14 created, 1.23 conceded against Birmingham City
W 0.90 created, 0.68 conceded against Wolverhampton
W 2.57 created, 0.65 conceded against Stoke City

Cardiff City

2.35 xG created 1.47 xGA

L 1.37 created, 2.07 conceded against Portsmouth
D 3.60 created, 1.11 conceded against Stoke City
L 1.79 created, 0.48 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
W 2.60 created, 1.26 conceded against Charlton Athletic
L 1.05 created, 2.42 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
W 3.67 created, 1.46 conceded against Watford

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 qualified edges flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Middlesbrough against Cardiff City before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Middlesbrough at most 1 goal	3.40	+23.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.40	+17.5%	Lost
Middlesbrough not to score	11.00	+16.7%	Lost
Cardiff City to win	6.25	+16.6%	Lost
Draw	4.75	+14.9%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	8.00	+2.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Middlesbrough	57.1%	65.1%	−7.9 pp	1.75
Draw	24.2%	19.9%	+4.3 pp	4.13
Cardiff City	18.7%	15.1%	+3.6 pp	5.36

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score	89.4%	91.3%	−1.9 pp	1.12
Middlesbrough not to score	10.6%	8.7%	+1.9 pp	9.42
Cardiff City to score	72.5%	68.7%	+3.8 pp	1.38
Cardiff City not to score	27.5%	31.3%	−3.8 pp	3.64
Both teams to score	66.1%	62.5%	+3.6 pp	1.51
Both teams not to score	33.9%	37.5%	−3.6 pp	2.95
Middlesbrough 2+ goals	63.6%	72.3%	−8.8 pp	1.57
Middlesbrough at most 1 goal	36.4%	27.7%	+8.8 pp	2.75
Cardiff City 2+ goals	34.0%	35.5%	−1.5 pp	2.94
Cardiff City at most 1 goal	66.0%	64.5%	+1.5 pp	1.52
Over 1.5 goals	87.2%	88.1%	−0.9 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	12.8%	11.9%	+0.9 pp	7.81
Over 2.5 goals	65.4%	71.8%	−6.4 pp	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	34.6%	28.2%	+6.4 pp	2.89

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Middlesbrough sample: 20 matches
Cardiff City sample: 10 matches
Computed: 59 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.