Tuesday, 24/11/2026 at 20:45
33d 21h to kick-offCharlton Athletic – Lincoln City
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Charlton Athletic
- 34%
- Draw
- 32%
- Lincoln City
- 34%
| Charlton Athletic | Draw | Lincoln City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.93 | 3.10 | 2.97 |
- Total goals
- 2.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
34% Charlton Athletic to win
- Attack
- 23rd vs 15th
- Charlton Athletic attack v Lincoln City defence
- Defence
- 22nd vs 18th
- Charlton Athletic defence v Lincoln City attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.28 vs -0.50
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.22 – 1.21
- Charlton Athletic v Lincoln City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Charlton Athletic | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.00 · 21st | (better) 1.25 · 15th |
| xGA / match | 1.57 · 16th | (better) 1.37 · 12th |
| xGD / match | -0.57 · 20th | (better) -0.13 · 13th |
| xPts / match | 1.00 · 21st | (better) 1.37 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.29 | -0.50 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Charlton Athletic clean sheet
- 27%
- Charlton Athletic 2+ goals
- 35%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.6%
- 2:1
- 9.3%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Charlton Athletic sample
- 20 matches
- Lincoln City sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · Charlton Athletic
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Lincoln City
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.