Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 13:30
Full timeMillwall 2:2 Lincoln City
Millwall were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Lincoln City's attack: 0.73 xG against 1.08 projected (−0.35).
Goals
- 1' Andrei Coubiș Lincoln City · 0.01 xG chance 0–1
- 33' Robert Street Lincoln City · 0.03 xG chance 0–2
- 63' Kyrell Lisbie Millwall · 0.23 xG chance 1–2
- 82' Jake Cooper Millwall · 0.24 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- Millwall
- 49%
- Draw
- 29% What happened
- Lincoln City
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
Lincoln City produced 0.35 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 9
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 13
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 1.21
- 0.73
- Set-piece xG
- 0.63
- 0.03
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.75 for Lincoln City.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 2.61 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Millwall
- Lincoln City
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.80 xG created 1.38 xGA
- W 2.63 created, 1.15 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- L 1.67 created, 1.23 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- D 1.69 created, 1.52 conceded against Middlesbrough
- D 2.68 created, 1.87 conceded against West Ham United
- W 1.09 created, 0.65 conceded against Preston North End
- L 1.05 created, 1.83 conceded against Swansea City
1.22 xG created 1.28 xGA
- D 2.27 created, 0.77 conceded against Southampton
- W 0.66 created, 0.58 conceded against Preston North End
- W 0.53 created, 1.53 conceded against Bristol City
- L 2.11 created, 0.92 conceded against Swansea City
- L 1.39 created, 0.68 conceded against Sheffield United
- L 0.35 created, 3.20 conceded against West Ham United
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged6 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln City 2+ goals | 3.75 | +11.0% | Won |
| Lincoln City to score | 1.57 | +8.6% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +8.5% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | +6.4% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +5.7% | Won |
| Lincoln City to win | 4.75 | +4.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +0.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 49.3% | 53.5% | −4.2 pp | 2.03 |
| Draw | 28.6% | 26.8% | +1.9 pp | 3.49 |
| Lincoln City | 22.0% | 19.7% | +2.3 pp | 4.54 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall to score | 83.2% | 79.2% | +4.0 pp | 1.20 |
| Millwall not to score | 16.8% | 20.8% | −4.0 pp | 5.96 |
| Lincoln City to score | 69.1% | 58.9% | +10.2 pp | 1.45 |
| Lincoln City not to score | 30.9% | 41.1% | −10.2 pp | 3.24 |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 50.0% | +9.2 pp | 1.69 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.8% | 50.0% | −9.2 pp | 2.45 |
| Millwall 2+ goals | 50.7% | 50.0% | +0.7 pp | 1.97 |
| Millwall at most 1 goal | 49.3% | 50.0% | −0.7 pp | 2.03 |
| Lincoln City 2+ goals | 29.6% | 25.0% | +4.6 pp | 3.38 |
| Lincoln City at most 1 goal | 70.4% | 75.0% | −4.6 pp | 1.42 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | 71.8% | +8.0 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.2% | 28.2% | −8.0 pp | 4.96 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 47.4% | +5.5 pp | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 52.6% | −5.5 pp | 2.12 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Millwall sample
- 20 matches
- Lincoln City sample
- 10 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.