Saturday, 28/11/2026 at 13:30
37d 15h to kick-offPreston North End – Norwich City
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Preston North End
- 33%
- Draw
- 31%
- Norwich City
- 36%
| Preston North End | Draw | Norwich City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.99 | 3.27 | 2.77 |
- Total goals
- 2.67
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Norwich City to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 23rd
- Norwich City attack v Preston North End defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 14th
- Norwich City defence v Preston North End attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.89 vs -0.57
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.31 – 1.36
- Preston North End v Norwich City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Preston North End | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.24 · 16th | (better) 1.47 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.46 · 14th | 1.60 · 17th |
| xGD / match | -0.22 · 16th | (better) -0.14 · 14th |
| xPts / match | 1.20 · 16th | (better) 1.26 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.57 | -0.89 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Norwich City clean sheet
- 24%
- Norwich City 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.4%
- 1:2
- 9.7%
- 2:1
- 9.3%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Preston North End sample
- 20 matches
- Norwich City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Preston North End
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Norwich City
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.