Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 16:00
16d 16h to kick-offPreston North End – Southampton
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Preston North End
- 30%
- Draw
- 29%
- Southampton
- 41%
| Preston North End | Draw | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.31 | 3.50 | 2.43 |
- Total goals
- 2.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Southampton
41% Southampton to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 23rd
- Southampton attack v Preston North End defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 14th
- Southampton defence v Preston North End attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.54 vs -0.57
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.36 – 1.59
- Preston North End v Southampton
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Preston North End | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.24 · 16th | (better) 1.83 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 1.46 · 14th | (better) 1.31 · 9th |
| xGD / match | -0.22 · 16th | (better) +0.53 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.20 · 16th | (better) 1.73 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.57 | (better) +0.54 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Southampton clean sheet
- 23%
- Southampton 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.8%
- 1:2
- 10.4%
- 2:1
- 8.7%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Preston North End sample
- 20 matches
- Southampton sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Preston North End
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Southampton
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.