Southampton 3:1 Stoke City: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Southampton Home 2.32 xG · 18 shots

Stoke City Away 0.93 xG · 14 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

8' Cyle Larin Southampton · 0.42 xG chance 1–0
26' Ethan Galbraith Stoke City · 0.19 xG chance 1–1
89' Divin Mubama Southampton · 0.23 xG chance 2–1
90' Ryan Manning (pen.) Southampton · 0.82 xG chance 3–1

The shots behind it

Southampton Stoke City

Shots: 18; 14
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 11; 12
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.54; 0.53
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.14
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.81 for Southampton and 0.67 for Stoke City.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 3.27 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Southampton
Stoke City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Southampton

1.81 xG created 1.18 xGA

W 2.23 created, 0.28 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
W 1.19 created, 1.19 conceded against Swansea City
D 2.33 created, 0.94 conceded against Bristol City
D 1.01 created, 1.92 conceded against Ipswich Town
W 2.41 created, 1.91 conceded against Preston North End
L 1.71 created, 0.81 conceded against Watford

Stoke City

1.05 xG created 1.33 xGA

D 1.74 created, 0.67 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
L 0.35 created, 1.25 conceded against Wrexham
L 1.00 created, 1.82 conceded against Millwall
L 1.51 created, 1.61 conceded against Portsmouth
L 1.03 created, 1.98 conceded against Bristol City
L 0.65 created, 0.62 conceded against Swansea City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Southampton: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.