Watford 2:1 Oxford United: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 04/10/2025 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Watford Home 2.65 xG · 27 shots

Oxford United Away 1.38 xG · 16 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

3' Max Alleyne (o.g.) Oxford United 0–1
45' Jeremy Ngakia Watford · 0.76 xG chance 1–1
45' Jeremy Ngakia Watford · 0.01 xG chance 2–1

The shots behind it

Watford Oxford United

Shots: 27; 16
On target: 10; 6
Inside the box: 15; 7
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.09
Open play xG: 2.57; 0.85
Set-piece xG: 0.12; 0.55
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.65 for Watford and 1.38 for Oxford United.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

43 shots · 4.09 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Watford
Oxford United
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Watford

1.20 xG created 1.10 xGA

D 0.41 created, 0.68 conceded against Swansea City
D 0.55 created, 1.81 conceded against Southampton
L 0.75 created, 1.45 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
L 0.73 created, 0.70 conceded against Millwall
W 2.82 created, 0.86 conceded against Hull City
D 1.94 created, 1.10 conceded against Portsmouth

Oxford United

1.13 xG created 1.12 xGA

L 0.38 created, 1.65 conceded against Birmingham City
D 1.04 created, 1.74 conceded against Coventry City
D 2.10 created, 0.84 conceded against Leicester City
W 1.72 created, 1.18 conceded against Bristol City
L 1.14 created, 0.48 conceded against Sheffield United
D 0.37 created, 0.80 conceded against Queens Park Rangers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.