Saturday, 21/11/2026 at 16:00
30d 17h to kick-offWest Ham United – Preston North End
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- West Ham United
- 62%
- Draw
- 24%
- Preston North End
- 15%
| West Ham United | Draw | Preston North End | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.62 | 4.22 | 6.87 |
- Total goals
- 3.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans West Ham United
62% West Ham United to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 23rd
- West Ham United attack v Preston North End defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 14th
- West Ham United defence v Preston North End attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.92 vs -0.57
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.05 – 0.98
- West Ham United v Preston North End
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | West Ham United | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.16 · 1st | 1.24 · 16th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.18 · joint 5th | 1.46 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.99 · 1st | -0.22 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.89 · 3rd | 1.20 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.92 | -0.57 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- West Ham United clean sheet
- 35%
- West Ham United 2+ goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.7%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 10.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- West Ham United sample
- 11 matches
- Preston North End sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · West Ham United
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Preston North End
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.