Saturday, 28/11/2026 at 16:00
37d 13h to kick-offWest Ham United – Stoke City
Model updated 22 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- West Ham United
- 65%
- Draw
- 23%
- Stoke City
- 11%
| West Ham United | Draw | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.54 | 4.27 | 8.70 |
- Total goals
- 2.83
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans West Ham United
65% West Ham United to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 21st
- West Ham United attack v Stoke City defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 24th
- West Ham United defence v Stoke City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.92 vs -1.01
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.01 – 0.82
- West Ham United v Stoke City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | West Ham United | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.16 · 1st | 0.90 · 24th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.18 · joint 5th | 1.71 · 22nd |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.99 · 1st | -0.81 · 24th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.89 · 3rd | 0.91 · 22nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.92 | -1.01 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- West Ham United clean sheet
- 41%
- West Ham United 2+ goals
- 62%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.1%
- 2:0
- 12.0%
- 2:1
- 11.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- West Ham United sample
- 11 matches
- Stoke City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · West Ham United
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Stoke City
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 22/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.