Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 20:45
12d 23h to kick-offBlackburn Rovers – Stoke City
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Blackburn Rovers
- 42%
- Draw
- 32%
- Stoke City
- 26%
| Blackburn Rovers | Draw | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.39 | 3.11 | 3.85 |
- Total goals
- 2.36
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Blackburn Rovers
42% Blackburn Rovers to win
- Attack
- 22nd vs 21st
- Blackburn Rovers attack v Stoke City defence
- Defence
- 18th vs 24th
- Blackburn Rovers defence v Stoke City attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.62 vs -1.01
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.33 – 1.03
- Blackburn Rovers v Stoke City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Blackburn Rovers | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 0.98 · 22nd | 0.90 · 24th |
| xGA / match | 1.72 · 23rd | (better) 1.71 · 22nd |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.74 · 22nd | -0.81 · 24th |
| xPts / match | 0.89 · 23rd | (better) 0.91 · 22nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.62 | -1.01 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Blackburn Rovers clean sheet
- 33%
- Blackburn Rovers 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.6%
- 1:0
- 10.3%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Blackburn Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Stoke City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Blackburn Rovers
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Stoke City
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.