HNK Rijeka 1:1 NK Varaždin: xG & match report · HNL

Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · HNL

HNK Rijeka Home 1.16 xG · 17 shots

NK Varaždin Away 0.83 xG · 3 shots

11 HNK Rijeka had the better chances, but it finished level

HNK Rijeka were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. It finished 1–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

17' Toni Fruk HNK Rijeka · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
50' Luka Mamić NK Varaždin · 0.02 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

HNK Rijeka: 44%
Draw: 34% What happened
NK Varaždin: 22%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

HNK Rijeka 1.24 1.16 -0.08

NK Varaždin 0.82 0.83 +0.01

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

HNK Rijeka NK Varaždin

Shots: 17; 3
On target: 4; 2
Inside the box: 7; 2
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.29
Open play xG: 0.93; 0.05
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.00
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.04 for NK Varaždin.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 2.03 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

HNK Rijeka
NK Varaždin
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

HNK Rijeka

1.62 xG created 1.00 xGA

W 2.66 created, 0.35 conceded against NK Osijek
D 2.01 created, 0.39 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
W 1.46 created, 1.28 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
L 2.12 created, 1.81 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo
W 1.08 created, 0.67 conceded against NK Rudeš
L 0.41 created, 1.50 conceded against GNK Dinamo Zagreb

NK Varaždin

1.27 xG created 0.80 xGA

D 1.45 created, 0.30 conceded against NK Istra 1961
D 1.55 created, 0.85 conceded against HNK Gorica
D 0.81 created, 0.59 conceded against NK Osijek
W 1.13 created, 1.12 conceded against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
L 1.19 created, 1.35 conceded against HNK Hajduk Split
L 1.50 created, 0.60 conceded against NK Slaven Belupo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

HNK Rijeka: 1 won · 0 drawn · 4 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 qualified edges flagged4 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on HNK Rijeka against NK Varaždin before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
HNK Rijeka not to score	5.00	+30.4%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.75	+29.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.95	+28.7%	Won
HNK Rijeka at most 1 goal	1.91	+22.6%	Won
Draw	3.50	+19.1%	Won
NK Varaždin at most 1 goal	1.29	+3.9%	Won
Both teams not to score	1.91	+3.5%	Lost
NK Varaždin not to score	2.50	+1.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HNK Rijeka	44.3%	53.7%	−9.4 pp	2.26
Draw	34.0%	25.6%	+8.4 pp	2.94
NK Varaždin	21.7%	20.7%	+1.0 pp	4.62

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HNK Rijeka to score	73.9%	81.1%	−7.2 pp	1.35
HNK Rijeka not to score	26.1%	18.9%	+7.2 pp	3.83
NK Varaždin to score	59.3%	62.5%	−3.2 pp	1.69
NK Varaždin not to score	40.7%	37.5%	+3.2 pp	2.45
Both teams to score	45.8%	51.5%	−5.7 pp	2.18
Both teams not to score	54.2%	48.5%	+5.7 pp	1.84
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals	35.8%	51.5%	−15.7 pp	2.80
HNK Rijeka at most 1 goal	64.2%	48.5%	+15.7 pp	1.56
NK Varaždin 2+ goals	19.2%	26.9%	−7.7 pp	5.21
NK Varaždin at most 1 goal	80.8%	73.1%	+7.7 pp	1.24
Over 1.5 goals	65.4%	75.0%	−9.6 pp	1.53
Under 1.5 goals	34.6%	25.0%	+9.6 pp	2.89
Over 2.5 goals	34.0%	51.3%	−17.3 pp	2.94
Under 2.5 goals	66.0%	48.7%	+17.3 pp	1.52

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
HNK Rijeka sample: 20 matches
NK Varaždin sample: 20 matches
Computed: 16 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.