Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:00
32d 20h to kick-offNK Istra 1961 – HNK Rijeka
Model updated 5 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Istra 1961
- 21%
- Draw
- 32%
- HNK Rijeka
- 48%
| NK Istra 1961 | Draw | HNK Rijeka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.88 | 3.13 | 2.10 |
- Total goals
- 2.23
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans HNK Rijeka
48% HNK Rijeka to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 7th
- HNK Rijeka attack v NK Istra 1961 defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 6th
- HNK Rijeka defence v NK Istra 1961 attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.68 vs +0.18
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.86 – 1.37
- NK Istra 1961 v HNK Rijeka
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Istra 1961 | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.44 · 5th | (better) 1.65 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.26 · 5th | (better) 0.77 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | +0.19 · 6th | (better) +0.88 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.45 · 6th | (better) 1.96 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.18 | (better) +0.68 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- HNK Rijeka clean sheet
- 40%
- HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.4%
- 0:1
- 12.5%
- 0:0
- 10.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Istra 1961 sample
- 20 matches
- HNK Rijeka sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Istra 1961
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · HNK Rijeka
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.