Friday, 23/10/2026 at 18:00
19d 16h to kick-offKRC Genk – Standard Liège
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- KRC Genk
- 56%
- Draw
- 26%
- Standard Liège
- 19%
| KRC Genk | Draw | Standard Liège | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.79 | 3.92 | 5.41 |
- Total goals
- 3.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans KRC Genk
56% KRC Genk to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 14th
- KRC Genk attack v Standard Liège defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 11th
- KRC Genk defence v Standard Liège attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.81 vs +0.11
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.94 – 1.11
- KRC Genk v Standard Liège
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | KRC Genk | Standard Liège |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.78 · 6th | (better) 1.79 · 5th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.08 · 5th | 1.53 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.70 · 5th | +0.25 · 7th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.64 · 6th | 1.48 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.81 | +0.11 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- KRC Genk clean sheet
- 30%
- KRC Genk 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.5%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 8.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KRC Genk sample
- 20 matches
- Standard Liège sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · KRC Genk
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Standard Liège
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.