KV Kortrijk 1:3 KV Mechelen: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Wednesday, 04/11/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Jupiler Pro League

KV Kortrijk Home 1.06 xG · 11 shots

KV Mechelen Away 1.32 xG · 16 shots

13 The scoreline reflected the chances

KV Kortrijk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. KV Mechelen won 3–1. The biggest difference was KV Mechelen's attack: 1.32 xG against 1.00 projected (+0.32). KV Kortrijk produced 1.06 xG against 1.33 projected (−0.27).

Goals

53' Thierry Ambrose KV Kortrijk · 0.17 xG chance 1–0
69' Myron Van Brederode KV Mechelen · 0.05 xG chance 1–1
72' Mohamed Fofana (o.g.) KV Mechelen 1–2
90' Boris Lambert (o.g.) KV Mechelen 1–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

KV Kortrijk: 43%
Draw: 32%
KV Mechelen: 25% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

KV Kortrijk 1.33 1.06 -0.27

KV Mechelen 1.00 1.32 +0.32

KV Mechelen produced 0.32 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

KV Kortrijk KV Mechelen

Shots: 11; 16
On target: 2; 8
Inside the box: 4; 9
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.08
Open play xG: 1.04; 0.75
Set-piece xG: 0.00; 0.58
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.06 for KV Kortrijk and 1.32 for KV Mechelen.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.37 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

KV Kortrijk
KV Mechelen
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

KV Kortrijk

1.05 xG created 1.65 xGA

L 0.46 created, 1.50 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
L 0.55 created, 1.19 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
L 0.81 created, 3.58 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
W 2.25 created, 0.42 conceded against SK Beveren
L 0.65 created, 1.78 conceded against KRC Genk
D 1.58 created, 1.41 conceded against Standard Liège

KV Mechelen

1.05 xG created 1.51 xGA

D 2.11 created, 2.17 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
L 0.58 created, 2.41 conceded against KVC Westerlo
L 1.23 created, 0.91 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
D 1.31 created, 0.48 conceded against Lommel SK
W 0.74 created, 1.45 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
W 0.31 created, 1.65 conceded against KRC Genk

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 qualified edges flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on KV Kortrijk against KV Mechelen before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+21.7%	Lost
KV Mechelen not to score	3.40	+15.1%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+12.7%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.00	+11.8%	Lost
KV Mechelen at most 1 goal	1.50	+10.3%	Lost
KV Kortrijk at most 1 goal	1.73	+4.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KV Kortrijk	42.5%	41.9%	+0.6 pp	2.35
Draw	32.2%	26.3%	+5.9 pp	3.11
KV Mechelen	25.3%	31.8%	−6.5 pp	3.95

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KV Kortrijk to score	76.4%	76.6%	−0.2 pp	1.31
KV Kortrijk not to score	23.6%	23.4%	+0.2 pp	4.24
KV Mechelen to score	66.2%	72.3%	−6.2 pp	1.51
KV Mechelen not to score	33.8%	27.7%	+6.2 pp	2.95
Both teams to score	52.4%	55.7%	−3.3 pp	1.91
Both teams not to score	47.6%	44.3%	+3.3 pp	2.10
KV Kortrijk 2+ goals	39.4%	46.3%	−6.9 pp	2.54
KV Kortrijk at most 1 goal	60.6%	53.7%	+6.9 pp	1.65
KV Mechelen 2+ goals	26.5%	37.5%	−11.0 pp	3.77
KV Mechelen at most 1 goal	73.5%	62.5%	+11.0 pp	1.36
Over 1.5 goals	72.0%	76.6%	−4.6 pp	1.39
Under 1.5 goals	28.0%	23.4%	+4.6 pp	3.58
Over 2.5 goals	42.1%	55.3%	−13.2 pp	2.38
Under 2.5 goals	57.9%	44.7%	+13.2 pp	1.73

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
KV Kortrijk sample: 9 matches
KV Mechelen sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Warnings

KV Kortrijk has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.