Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeKV Mechelen 1:0 KRC Genk
KRC Genk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. KV Mechelen won 1–0. The biggest difference was KV Mechelen's attack: 0.31 xG against 1.10 projected (−0.79).
Goals
- 22' Simion Michez KV Mechelen · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- KV Mechelen
- 24% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- KRC Genk
- 47%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
KV Mechelen produced 0.79 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 20
- On target
- 3
- 5
- Inside the box
- 4
- 16
- xG per shot
- 0.04
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.28
- 0.95
- Set-piece xG
- 0.03
- 0.71
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.31 for KV Mechelen and 1.66 for KRC Genk.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 1.98 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- KV Mechelen
- KRC Genk
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.03 xG created 1.48 xGA
- L 0.23 created, 1.44 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- D 2.11 created, 2.17 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- L 0.58 created, 2.41 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- L 1.23 created, 0.91 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- D 1.31 created, 0.48 conceded against Lommel SK
- W 0.74 created, 1.45 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
1.91 xG created 1.08 xGA
- W 3.06 created, 0.61 conceded against SK Beveren
- D 0.40 created, 0.70 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
- D 0.94 created, 0.89 conceded against KAA Gent
- L 1.96 created, 2.12 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- W 1.78 created, 0.65 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- W 3.32 created, 1.48 conceded against Standard Liège
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 qualified edges flagged2 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.70 | +8.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +6.4% | Won |
| KV Mechelen at most 1 goal | 1.44 | +0.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | 23.8% | 26.5% | −2.7 pp | 4.21 |
| Draw | 29.4% | 25.0% | +4.3 pp | 3.41 |
| KRC Genk | 46.9% | 48.5% | −1.6 pp | 2.13 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen to score | 69.9% | 68.7% | +1.2 pp | 1.43 |
| KV Mechelen not to score | 30.1% | 31.3% | −1.2 pp | 3.33 |
| KRC Genk to score | 81.9% | 81.1% | +0.8 pp | 1.22 |
| KRC Genk not to score | 18.1% | 18.9% | −0.8 pp | 5.51 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | 57.7% | +1.3 pp | 1.70 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.0% | 42.3% | −1.3 pp | 2.44 |
| KV Mechelen 2+ goals | 30.5% | 35.5% | −5.0 pp | 3.28 |
| KV Mechelen at most 1 goal | 69.5% | 64.5% | +5.0 pp | 1.44 |
| KRC Genk 2+ goals | 48.4% | 51.5% | −3.1 pp | 2.07 |
| KRC Genk at most 1 goal | 51.6% | 48.5% | +3.1 pp | 1.94 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | 78.3% | +0.7 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.0% | 21.7% | −0.7 pp | 4.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 57.1% | −5.5 pp | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 42.9% | +5.5 pp | 2.07 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KV Mechelen sample
- 20 matches
- KRC Genk sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 59 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.