Sevilla 1:3 Barcelona: xG & match report · La Liga

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Sevilla Home 0.40 xG · 7 shots

Barcelona Away 3.47 xG · 24 shots

13 The scoreline reflected the chances

Barcelona were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Barcelona's attack: 3.47 xG against 1.34 projected (+2.13). Sevilla produced 0.40 xG against 0.95 projected (−0.55).

Goals

19' Youssouf Fofana Sevilla · 0.22 xG chance 1–0
22' Raphinha Barcelona · 0.14 xG chance 1–1
52' Raphinha Barcelona · 0.16 xG chance 1–2
69' Raphinha Barcelona · 0.57 xG chance 1–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Sevilla: 24%
Draw: 32%
Barcelona: 44% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Sevilla 0.95 0.40 -0.55

Barcelona 1.34 3.47 +2.13

Barcelona produced 2.13 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Sevilla Barcelona

Shots: 7; 24
On target: 3; 7
Inside the box: 3; 12
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.14
Open play xG: 0.42; 2.57
Set-piece xG: 0.02; 0.69
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.45 for Sevilla and 3.27 for Barcelona.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.70 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Sevilla
Barcelona
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sevilla

1.09 xG created 0.94 xGA

W 2.19 created, 1.89 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
W 1.26 created, 1.37 conceded against Athletic Club
L 0.90 created, 0.93 conceded against Atlético Madrid
D 0.53 created, 1.23 conceded against Espanyol
W 0.93 created, 0.10 conceded against Valencia
W 0.73 created, 0.14 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña

Barcelona

4.18 xG created 1.20 xGA

W 4.38 created, 0.70 conceded against Elche
W 4.23 created, 0.25 conceded against Athletic Club
W 3.04 created, 1.21 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
W 4.08 created, 0.66 conceded against Valencia
W 2.58 created, 2.42 conceded against Levante UD
W 6.74 created, 1.98 conceded against Racing de Santander

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Sevilla: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Sevilla against Barcelona before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Barcelona not to score	17.00	+299.5%	Lost
Barcelona at most 1 goal	5.00	+202.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	9.00	+161.4%	Lost
Sevilla to win	11.00	+159.8%	Lost
Draw	7.50	+143.0%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	4.00	+137.6%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.20	+7.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sevilla	23.6%	8.6%	+15.0 pp	4.23
Draw	32.4%	12.6%	+19.8 pp	3.09
Barcelona	44.0%	78.8%	−34.8 pp	2.27

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sevilla to score	64.4%	60.8%	+3.6 pp	1.55
Sevilla not to score	35.6%	39.2%	−3.6 pp	2.81
Barcelona to score	76.5%	94.3%	−17.8 pp	1.31
Barcelona not to score	23.5%	5.7%	+17.8 pp	4.26
Both teams to score	51.2%	57.7%	−6.5 pp	1.95
Both teams not to score	48.8%	42.3%	+6.5 pp	2.05
Sevilla 2+ goals	24.2%	26.9%	−2.6 pp	4.13
Sevilla at most 1 goal	75.8%	73.1%	+2.6 pp	1.32
Barcelona 2+ goals	39.6%	81.1%	−41.5 pp	2.53
Barcelona at most 1 goal	60.4%	18.9%	+41.5 pp	1.66
Over 1.5 goals	71.0%	89.4%	−18.4 pp	1.41
Under 1.5 goals	29.0%	10.6%	+18.4 pp	3.44
Over 2.5 goals	40.6%	76.2%	−35.6 pp	2.46
Under 2.5 goals	59.4%	23.8%	+35.6 pp	1.68

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sevilla sample: 20 matches
Barcelona sample: 20 matches
Computed: 12 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 12 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.