Friday, 30/10/2026 at 20:45
26d 19h to kick-offShelbourne – Waterford FC
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Shelbourne
- 42%
- Draw
- 28%
- Waterford FC
- 30%
| Shelbourne | Draw | Waterford FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.37 | 3.63 | 3.30 |
- Total goals
- 3.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Shelbourne
42% Shelbourne to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 6th
- Shelbourne attack v Waterford FC defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 3rd
- Shelbourne defence v Waterford FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.12 vs +0.58
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.69 – 1.43
- Shelbourne v Waterford FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Shelbourne | Waterford FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.40 · 5th | 1.40 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.20 · 5th | 1.77 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.20 · 4th | -0.38 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.48 · 4th | 1.17 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.12 | (better) +0.58 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Shelbourne clean sheet
- 21%
- Shelbourne 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.8%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Shelbourne sample
- 20 matches
- Waterford FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Shelbourne
- 16 matches
- Away xG sample · Waterford FC
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.