Monday, 19/10/2026 at 20:45
Full timeWaterford FC 3:2 Galway United
Waterford FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Galway United's attack: 0.55 xG against 1.31 projected (−0.76). Waterford FC produced 1.77 xG against 2.18 projected (−0.41).
The model against the result
- Waterford FC
- 57% What happened
- Draw
- 23%
- Galway United
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Galway United produced 0.76 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 10
- On target
- 7
- 5
- Inside the box
- 14
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.06
Recent form
1.61 xG created 1.01 xGA
- D 1.59 created, 0.66 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- W 2.27 created, 1.42 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
- D 2.04 created, 0.55 conceded against Dundalk FC
- D 1.50 created, 0.89 conceded against Derry City
- L 1.01 created, 2.05 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
- L 1.22 created, 0.47 conceded against Bohemian FC
1.24 xG created 1.54 xGA
- D 0.54 created, 2.26 conceded against Shelbourne
- L 1.84 created, 2.77 conceded against Bohemian FC
- W 2.42 created, 0.97 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- L 0.61 created, 0.74 conceded against Derry City
- D 1.56 created, 0.60 conceded against Shelbourne
- W 0.44 created, 1.87 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 qualified edges flagged5 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford FC 2+ goals | 1.73 | +14.5% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | +9.7% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | +6.7% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | +4.4% | Won |
| Waterford FC to score | 1.14 | +3.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford FC | 56.8% | 52.7% | +4.2 pp | 1.76 |
| Draw | 23.4% | 24.6% | −1.2 pp | 4.28 |
| Galway United | 19.8% | 22.7% | −3.0 pp | 5.06 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford FC to score | 90.5% | 82.8% | +7.7 pp | 1.10 |
| Waterford FC not to score | 9.5% | 17.2% | −7.7 pp | 10.53 |
| Galway United to score | 75.6% | 72.3% | +3.3 pp | 1.32 |
| Galway United not to score | 24.4% | 27.7% | −3.3 pp | 4.10 |
| Both teams to score | 69.6% | 60.8% | +8.8 pp | 1.44 |
| Both teams not to score | 30.4% | 39.2% | −8.8 pp | 3.29 |
| Waterford FC 2+ goals | 66.3% | 53.7% | +12.6 pp | 1.51 |
| Waterford FC at most 1 goal | 33.7% | 46.3% | −12.6 pp | 2.97 |
| Galway United 2+ goals | 38.4% | 37.5% | +0.9 pp | 2.61 |
| Galway United at most 1 goal | 61.6% | 62.5% | −0.9 pp | 1.62 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.4% | 81.1% | +8.3 pp | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10.6% | 18.9% | −8.3 pp | 9.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.8% | 59.9% | +9.9 pp | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.2% | 40.1% | −9.9 pp | 3.31 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Waterford FC sample
- 20 matches
- Galway United sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.