Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00
27d 15h to kick-offNewcastle United – Everton
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Newcastle United
- 33%
- Draw
- 29%
- Everton
- 38%
| Newcastle United | Draw | Everton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.07 | 3.43 | 2.61 |
- Total goals
- 2.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Everton
38% Everton to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 20th
- Everton attack v Newcastle United defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 19th
- Everton defence v Newcastle United attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.06 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.39 – 1.51
- Newcastle United v Everton
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Newcastle United | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.07 · 17th | (better) 1.46 · 12th |
| xGA / match | 1.83 · 18th | (better) 1.39 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.76 · 19th | (better) +0.08 · 10th |
| xPts / match | 0.82 · 20th | (better) 1.45 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.89 | (better) -0.06 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Everton clean sheet
- 22%
- Everton 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.2%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
- 2:1
- 9.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Everton sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Newcastle United
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Everton
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.