Premier League odds: history of flagged selections 2026/2027
Estimates from a statistical model, published for reading rather than as betting advice. A positive value is a statement about an average over a long run, not about the match in front of you.
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Every Premier League qualified selection this season — a fresh price, full model data, a market with measured skill and an edge from 5% up to but not including 40%, at the model's last evaluation before kickoff — newest first, with its result and what an equal stake of one unit returned.
The price shown is the one paired with the last evaluation before kickoff, not necessarily the price available when the selection first appeared. Selections that no longer qualified at that evaluation are not counted.
| Match and selection | Model prob. | Price | Bookmaker | Captured | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham – Manchester United Fulham to win | Model prob. 34.2% | Price 3.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Fulham – Manchester United Manchester United not to score | Model prob. 19.5% | Price 5.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Fulham – Manchester United Manchester United at most 1 goal | Model prob. 54.1% | Price 2.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.00u |
| Leeds United – Crystal Palace Crystal Palace to win | Model prob. 25.8% | Price 4.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Leeds United – Crystal Palace Leeds United at most 1 goal | Model prob. 52.9% | Price 2.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.10u |
| Leeds United – Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 2+ goals | Model prob. 32.6% | Price 3.25 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Manchester City – Sunderland Sunderland to score | Model prob. 64.1% | Price 1.80 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.80u |
| Manchester City – Sunderland Sunderland 2+ goals | Model prob. 24.0% | Price 5.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +4.50u |
| Bournemouth – Liverpool Bournemouth 2+ goals | Model prob. 50.1% | Price 2.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Bournemouth – Liverpool Liverpool at most 1 goal | Model prob. 64.8% | Price 2.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.00u |
| Brighton & Hove Albion – Arsenal Brighton & Hove Albion to score | Model prob. 73.9% | Price 1.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.50u |
| Brighton & Hove Albion – Arsenal Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals | Model prob. 35.7% | Price 3.40 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +2.40u |
| Brighton & Hove Albion – Arsenal Arsenal at most 1 goal | Model prob. 62.2% | Price 2.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.10u |
| Leeds United – Newcastle United Leeds United 2+ goals | Model prob. 50.4% | Price 2.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.10u |
| Manchester United – Manchester City Manchester United to win | Model prob. 39.6% | Price 3.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Manchester United – Manchester City Manchester City not to score | Model prob. 21.1% | Price 5.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Manchester United – Manchester City Manchester City at most 1 goal | Model prob. 56.6% | Price 2.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.00u |
| Sunderland – Arsenal Sunderland to score | Model prob. 63.1% | Price 1.73 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Sunderland – Arsenal Arsenal not to score | Model prob. 25.7% | Price 5.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Sunderland – Arsenal Sunderland 2+ goals | Model prob. 23.1% | Price 5.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Sunderland – Arsenal Arsenal at most 1 goal | Model prob. 63.7% | Price 1.91 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Bournemouth – Brentford Bournemouth to win | Model prob. 45.7% | Price 2.45 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Liverpool – Fulham Fulham to score | Model prob. 75.1% | Price 1.40 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Liverpool – Fulham Liverpool at most 1 goal | Model prob. 47.1% | Price 2.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.75u |
| Liverpool – Fulham Fulham 2+ goals | Model prob. 37.7% | Price 3.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Everton – Manchester United Everton to win | Model prob. 29.8% | Price 3.70 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Brighton & Hove Albion – Leeds United Brighton & Hove Albion to win | Model prob. 55.4% | Price 2.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Nottingham Forest – Tottenham Hotspur Nottingham Forest to win | Model prob. 43.5% | Price 2.45 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Newcastle United – Bournemouth Bournemouth to win | Model prob. 32.7% | Price 3.30 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Aston Villa – Arsenal Aston Villa to score | Model prob. 67.8% | Price 1.67 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Aston Villa – Arsenal Arsenal not to score | Model prob. 21.4% | Price 6.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Aston Villa – Arsenal Aston Villa 2+ goals | Model prob. 28.2% | Price 4.33 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Aston Villa – Arsenal Arsenal at most 1 goal | Model prob. 57.5% | Price 2.20 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.20u |
| Bournemouth – Everton Bournemouth to win | Model prob. 51.5% | Price 2.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Bournemouth – Everton Bournemouth 2+ goals | Model prob. 54.7% | Price 2.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Liverpool – Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest to win | Model prob. 18.5% | Price 6.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Liverpool – Nottingham Forest Liverpool not to score | Model prob. 13.2% | Price 9.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Liverpool – Nottingham Forest Liverpool at most 1 goal | Model prob. 42.1% | Price 2.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Crystal Palace – Manchester City Crystal Palace to score | Model prob. 74.3% | Price 1.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.50u |
| Crystal Palace – Manchester City Manchester City not to score | Model prob. 21.0% | Price 6.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Crystal Palace – Manchester City Crystal Palace 2+ goals | Model prob. 36.2% | Price 3.40 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Crystal Palace – Manchester City Manchester City at most 1 goal | Model prob. 56.5% | Price 2.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Fulham – Chelsea Fulham to score | Model prob. 78.3% | Price 1.36 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.36u |
| Fulham – Chelsea Fulham 2+ goals | Model prob. 42.2% | Price 2.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.75u |
| Fulham – Chelsea Chelsea at most 1 goal | Model prob. 67.1% | Price 2.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
A selection counts only if the live feed evaluated and priced it before kickoff and it qualified at that evaluation. Nothing is added afterwards. A pending selection is graded by the nightly settlement. How the model works →