xgEdge
Premier League

Premier League results 2026/2027

Every Premier League match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.

xG reading
All Went with the xG Went against the xG

Model record

Most likely outcome landed in 9 of 30 matches (30%). The probabilities implied about 13 (45%). Brier score 0.68 (reference 0.70; lower is better). How the model works →

  • Home
  • Draw
  • Away
What happened Most likely outcome Upset

Sunday, 20/09/2026

4 matches
  • Fulham 1
    Manchester United 1
    xG 1.62 – 1.60 Level on xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated least likely landed
    →
  • Bournemouth 0
    Liverpool 1
    xG 0.79 – 1.65 Followed the xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated least likely landed
    →
  • Manchester City 5
    Sunderland 3
    xG 2.82 – 3.57 Lower-xG side won
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated most likely landed
    →
  • Leeds United 0
    Crystal Palace 0
    xG 1.31 – 1.06 Level on xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    →

Saturday, 19/09/2026

5 matches
  • Nottingham Forest 0
    Coventry City 1
    xG 1.10 – 0.67 Level on xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated least likely landed
    →
  • Newcastle United 2
    Hull City 1
    xG 1.44 – 1.59 Level on xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated most likely landed
    →
  • Everton 1
    Ipswich Town 0
    xG 2.24 – 1.44 Followed the xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated most likely landed
    →
  • Brighton & Hove Albion 3
    Arsenal 0
    xG 1.31 – 1.63 Level on xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    →
  • Tottenham Hotspur 2
    Aston Villa 3
    xG 1.56 – 1.16 Level on xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated least likely landed
    →

Friday, 18/09/2026

1 match
  • Brentford 3
    Chelsea 0
    xG 2.65 – 0.83 Followed the xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated most likely landed
    →

Monday, 14/09/2026

1 match
  • Leeds United 4
    Newcastle United 1
    xG 2.08 – 0.88 Followed the xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated most likely landed
    →

Sunday, 13/09/2026

2 matches

Saturday, 12/09/2026

7 matches
  • Sunderland 0
    Arsenal 2
    xG 1.80 – 1.88 Level on xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated most likely landed
    →
  • Tottenham Hotspur 0
    Everton 0
    xG 0.69 – 1.11 Level on xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    →
  • Crystal Palace 2
    Ipswich Town 3
    xG 0.62 – 1.67 Followed the xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated least likely landed
    →
  • Chelsea 2
    Hull City 2
    xG 0.91 – 1.38 Level on xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    →
  • Bournemouth 2
    Brentford 2
    xG 1.75 – 0.50 Draw with an xG gap
    Pre-match probabilities
    →
  • Aston Villa 1
    Nottingham Forest 2
    xG 0.82 – 2.28 Followed the xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated least likely landed
    →
  • Liverpool 0
    Fulham 0
    xG 1.28 – 0.70 Draw with an xG gap
    Pre-match probabilities
    →

Sunday, 06/09/2026

2 matches
  • Arsenal 2
    Chelsea 1
    xG 2.05 – 0.39 Followed the xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated most likely landed
    →
  • Everton 2
    Manchester United 2
    xG 1.01 – 0.69 Level on xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated least likely landed
    →

Saturday, 05/09/2026

7 matches
  • Hull City 0
    Aston Villa 0
    xG 0.57 – 1.93 Draw with an xG gap
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated least likely landed
    →
  • Nottingham Forest 0
    Tottenham Hotspur 0
    xG 0.92 – 1.06 Level on xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    →
  • Fulham 2
    Crystal Palace 3
    xG 3.14 – 1.97 Lower-xG side won
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated least likely landed
    →
  • Manchester City 1
    Coventry City 0
    xG 2.12 – 1.37 Followed the xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated most likely landed
    →
  • Brentford 1
    Sunderland 1
    xG 1.21 – 1.71 Draw with an xG gap
    Pre-match probabilities
    →
  • Brighton & Hove Albion 1
    Leeds United 1
    xG 2.19 – 2.49 Level on xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    →
  • Newcastle United 2
    Bournemouth 2
    xG 0.71 – 1.37 Draw with an xG gap
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated least likely landed
    →

Friday, 04/09/2026

1 match
  • Ipswich Town 0
    Liverpool 2
    xG 0.75 – 0.69 Level on xG
    Pre-match probabilities
    The outcome the model rated most likely landed
    →

Monday, 31/08/2026

1 match

Sunday, 30/08/2026

4 matches

Saturday, 29/08/2026

4 matches

Friday, 28/08/2026

1 match

Monday, 24/08/2026

1 match
  • Fulham 2
    Chelsea 3
    xG 1.33 – 2.24 Followed the xG
    No pre-match probabilities
    →

Sunday, 23/08/2026

3 matches

Saturday, 22/08/2026

5 matches

Friday, 21/08/2026

1 match

xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.

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