PS Kalamata 1:1 Iraklis 1908: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Monday, 02/11/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · Super League Greece

PS Kalamata Home 2.41 xG · 13 shots

Iraklis 1908 Away 0.97 xG · 18 shots

11 PS Kalamata had the better chances, but it finished level

PS Kalamata were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was PS Kalamata's attack: 2.41 xG against 1.44 projected (+0.97).

Goals

54' Dawid Kurminowski PS Kalamata · 0.70 xG chance 1–0
57' Nanú Iraklis 1908 · 0.16 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

PS Kalamata: 51%
Draw: 31% What happened
Iraklis 1908: 18%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

PS Kalamata 1.44 2.41 +0.97

Iraklis 1908 0.79 0.97 +0.18

PS Kalamata produced 0.97 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

PS Kalamata Iraklis 1908

Shots: 13; 18
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 7; 7
xG per shot: 0.19; 0.05
Open play xG: 2.42; 0.81
Set-piece xG: 0.11; 0.16
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.54 for PS Kalamata.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.50 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

PS Kalamata
Iraklis 1908
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

PS Kalamata

1.35 xG created 1.05 xGA

D 0.46 created, 0.24 conceded against Atromitos Athens
W 2.25 created, 0.76 conceded against NPS Volos
L 1.16 created, 1.72 conceded against Panathinaikos
W 2.36 created, 1.25 conceded against PAOK
W 1.75 created, 1.96 conceded against OFI Crete
L 0.10 created, 0.34 conceded against Olympiacos FC

Iraklis 1908

0.69 xG created 1.39 xGA

W 0.92 created, 0.99 conceded against Asteras Aktor
D 0.69 created, 1.47 conceded against Atromitos Athens
D 0.37 created, 1.54 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
W 0.72 created, 0.56 conceded against APO Levadiakos
L 0.78 created, 2.02 conceded against PAOK
L 0.68 created, 1.78 conceded against AE Kifisia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 qualified edges flagged2 won3 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on PS Kalamata against Iraklis 1908 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Iraklis 1908 not to score	2.63	+11.1%	Lost
Iraklis 1908 at most 1 goal	1.30	+6.6%	Won
PS Kalamata to win	2.05	+5.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	+3.5%	Won
Both teams not to score	1.91	+0.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
PS Kalamata	51.5%	45.1%	+6.3 pp	1.94
Draw	31.0%	29.9%	+1.2 pp	3.22
Iraklis 1908	17.5%	25.0%	−7.5 pp	5.70

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
PS Kalamata to score	79.0%	75.0%	+4.0 pp	1.27
PS Kalamata not to score	21.0%	25.0%	−4.0 pp	4.76
Iraklis 1908 to score	57.7%	64.5%	−6.8 pp	1.73
Iraklis 1908 not to score	42.3%	35.5%	+6.8 pp	2.36
Both teams to score	47.4%	50.0%	−2.6 pp	2.11
Both teams not to score	52.6%	50.0%	+2.6 pp	1.90
PS Kalamata 2+ goals	43.5%	42.3%	+1.2 pp	2.30
PS Kalamata at most 1 goal	56.5%	57.7%	−1.2 pp	1.77
Iraklis 1908 2+ goals	18.0%	27.7%	−9.7 pp	5.56
Iraklis 1908 at most 1 goal	82.0%	72.3%	+9.7 pp	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	69.6%	70.9%	−1.3 pp	1.44
Under 1.5 goals	30.4%	29.1%	+1.3 pp	3.29
Over 2.5 goals	39.1%	45.4%	−6.3 pp	2.56
Under 2.5 goals	60.9%	54.6%	+6.3 pp	1.64

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 2 warnings

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
PS Kalamata sample: 8 matches
Iraklis 1908 sample: 8 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 29 minutes before kick-off

Warnings

PS Kalamata has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Iraklis 1908 has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.