FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv – Bukovyna Chernivtsi prediction, 31 October 2026 · Ukrainian Premier League

Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 12:00 Sat 31 October, 12:00

Kicked off · odds locked

Match preview · Ukrainian Premier League

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv Home 11th in Ukrainian Premier League

1.43

Bukovyna Chernivtsi Away 13th in Ukrainian Premier League

1.56 Projected xG

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv: 33%; Mkt 34% Market 34%; Fair 3.06 Fair odds 3.06
Draw: 28%; Mkt 28% Market 28%; Fair 3.51 Fair odds 3.51
Bukovyna Chernivtsi: 39%; Mkt 38% Market 38%; Fair 2.57 Fair odds 2.57

No qualified edge

The largest edge is Over 2.5 goals at +15.8%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: Kicked off. How this is decided →

Data coverage · thin

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 11/20
Bukovyna Chernivtsi 9/20

Model updated 31 October, 09:30
Top odds updated 31 October, 06:00

One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices, locked at kick-off.

Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +15.8%

Model 59.4%

Market 48.7%

Fair odds 1.68 Bookmaker odds 1.95

Model skill: -0.89%
Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge +13.7%

Model 65.9%

Market 53.7%

Fair odds 1.52 Bookmaker odds 1.73

Model skill: -0.43%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +13.6%

Model 47.8%

Market 39.2%

Fair odds 2.09 Bookmaker odds 2.38

Model skill: +2.61%
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +7.6%

Model 43.0%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.32 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: +3.62%

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Match result

Draw Match result

Edge -7.4%

Model 28.5%

Market 27.5%

Fair odds 3.51 Bookmaker odds 3.25

Model skill: -1.04%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win Match result

Edge -8.7%

Model 38.9%

Market 38.1%

Fair odds 2.57 Bookmaker odds 2.35

Model skill: +7.20%
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to win Match result

Edge -15.2%

Model 32.6%

Market 34.4%

Fair odds 3.06 Bookmaker odds 2.60

Model skill: +7.19%

Model against the market

Draw

Model: 28.5%
Market, margin removed: 27.5%

Probability gap: +1.0 pp
Edge: −7.4%
Fair odds: 3.51
Market odds: 3.25 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.68
Bookmaker margin: 11.8%

Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win

Model: 38.9%
Market, margin removed: 38.1%

Probability gap: +0.8 pp
Edge: −8.7%
Fair odds: 2.57
Market odds: 2.35 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 2.70
Bookmaker margin: 11.8%

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to win

Model: 32.6%
Market, margin removed: 34.4%

Probability gap: −1.8 pp
Edge: −15.2%
Fair odds: 3.06
Market odds: 2.60 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.22
Bookmaker margin: 11.8%

Goals

Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +15.8%

Model 59.4%

Market 48.7%

Fair odds 1.68 Bookmaker odds 1.95

Model skill: -0.89%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge +9.1%

Model 83.9%

Market 72.3%

Fair odds 1.19 Bookmaker odds 1.30

Model skill: -0.01%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -24.8%

Model 40.6%

Market 51.3%

Fair odds 2.46 Bookmaker odds 1.85

Model skill: -0.89%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -45.4%

Model 16.1%

Market 27.7%

Fair odds 6.22 Bookmaker odds 3.40

Model skill: -0.01%

Both teams to score

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge +13.7%

Model 65.9%

Market 53.7%

Fair odds 1.52 Bookmaker odds 1.73

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -31.7%

Model 34.1%

Market 46.3%

Fair odds 2.93 Bookmaker odds 2.00

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +13.6%

Model 47.8%

Market 39.2%

Fair odds 2.09 Bookmaker odds 2.38

Model skill: +2.61%
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +7.6%

Model 43.0%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.32 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: +3.62%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score Goals by team

Edge +6.2%

Model 81.7%

Market 72.3%

Fair odds 1.22 Bookmaker odds 1.30

Model skill: +2.56%
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to score Goals by team

Edge +2.3%

Model 78.7%

Market 72.3%

Fair odds 1.27 Bookmaker odds 1.30

Model skill: +3.77%
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -14.6%

Model 57.0%

Market 62.5%

Fair odds 1.76 Bookmaker odds 1.50

Model skill: +3.62%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -20.0%

Model 52.2%

Market 60.8%

Fair odds 1.92 Bookmaker odds 1.53

Model skill: +2.61%
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv not to score Goals by team

Edge -27.5%

Model 21.3%

Market 27.7%

Fair odds 4.69 Bookmaker odds 3.40

Model skill: +3.77%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi not to score Goals by team

Edge -37.8%

Model 18.3%

Market 27.7%

Fair odds 5.47 Bookmaker odds 3.40

Model skill: +2.56%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

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Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv xG 0.67 xGA 1.49

D 0.34 created, 0.46 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
L 0.23 created, 1.55 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
W 1.46 created, 1.36 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
L 0.66 created, 2.20 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
L 0.60 created, 2.64 conceded against Metalist 1925
D 0.72 created, 0.70 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy

Bukovyna Chernivtsi xG 1.60 xGA 2.25

W 1.42 created, 2.62 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
D 2.18 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
D 2.31 created, 0.70 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
L 0.82 created, 3.04 conceded against Metalist 1925
D 0.72 created, 2.64 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
L 2.14 created, 2.31 conceded against Kudrivka

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 2.99
Over 2.5 goals: 59%
Both teams to score: 66%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals: 48%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi clean sheet: 21%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 13.6%
1:2: 10.1%
2:1: 9.1%

Why the model leans Bukovyna Chernivtsi, but not by much

Bukovyna Chernivtsi's attack and recent form carry the lean; its defence does not back it.

Attack: Favours Bukovyna Chernivtsi; 5th vs 9th; Bukovyna Chernivtsi attack v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv defence
Defence: Favours FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv; 15th vs 13th; Bukovyna Chernivtsi defence v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv attack
Recent xG form: Favours Bukovyna Chernivtsi; -0.65 vs -0.82; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv and Bukovyna Chernivtsi compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv	Bukovyna Chernivtsi
xG / match	0.86 · 14th	(better) 1.77 · 6th
xGA / match	(better) 1.29 · 6th	2.11 · 14th
xGD / match	-0.43 · 10th	(better) -0.34 · 8th
xPts / match	1.05 · 11th	(better) 1.24 · 8th
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.82	(better) -0.65

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv and Bukovyna Chernivtsi compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv	Bukovyna Chernivtsi
xG / match	0.86 · 14th	(better) 1.77 · 6th
npxG / match	0.87	(better) 1.68
Shots / match	11.8 · 11th	(better) 15.4 · 5th
npxG / shot	0.07 · 14th	(better) 0.11 · 7th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv and Bukovyna Chernivtsi compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv	Bukovyna Chernivtsi
xGA / match	(better) 1.29 · 6th	2.11 · 14th
Shots faced / match	(better) 14.9 · joint 10th	17.1 · 14th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.09 · 3rd	0.12 · 13th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv and Bukovyna Chernivtsi compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv	Bukovyna Chernivtsi
Last 6 xG / match	0.67	(better) 1.60
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.49	2.25
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.82	(better) -0.65

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to win

32.6% 3.06 —

Draw

28.5% 3.51 —

Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win

38.9% 2.57 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

83.9% 1.19 —

Under 1.5 goals

16.1% 6.22 —

Over 2.5 goals

59.4% 1.68 —

Under 2.5 goals

40.6% 2.46 —

Both teams to score

65.9% 1.52 —

Both teams not to score

34.1% 2.93 —

Team goals — FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to score

78.7% 1.27 —

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv not to score

21.3% 4.69 —

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 2+ goals

43.0% 2.32 —

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv at most 1 goal

57.0% 1.76 —

Team goals — Bukovyna Chernivtsi

Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score

81.7% 1.22 —

Bukovyna Chernivtsi not to score

18.3% 5.47 —

Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals

47.8% 2.09 —

Bukovyna Chernivtsi at most 1 goal

52.2% 1.92 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

· 1 warning

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv xG 0.67 xGA 1.49

D 0.34 created, 0.46 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
L 0.23 created, 1.55 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
W 1.46 created, 1.36 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
L 0.66 created, 2.20 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
L 0.60 created, 2.64 conceded against Metalist 1925
D 0.72 created, 0.70 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy

Bukovyna Chernivtsi xG 1.60 xGA 2.25

W 1.42 created, 2.62 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
D 2.18 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
D 2.31 created, 0.70 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
L 0.82 created, 3.04 conceded against Metalist 1925
D 0.72 created, 2.64 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
L 2.14 created, 2.31 conceded against Kudrivka

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model leans Bukovyna Chernivtsi, but not by much

Team comparison

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv attack → Bukovyna Chernivtsi defence

Bukovyna Chernivtsi attack → FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv defence

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Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv

Team goals — Bukovyna Chernivtsi

What the model doesn't know