Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
2d 16h to kick-offBlackburn Rovers – Wrexham
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Top odds updated 21 October, 18:00
What the model expects
- Blackburn Rovers
- 31%
- Draw
- 34%
- Wrexham
- 35%
| Blackburn Rovers | Draw | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.21 | 2.91 | 2.89 |
- Total goals
- 2.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 4 outcomes.
-
Blackburn Rovers
- Model
- 31.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 34.7%
- Probability gap
- −3.6 pp
- Edge
- −16.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.21
- Market odds
- 2.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.37
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.7%
-
Draw
- Model
- 34.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 29.3%
- Probability gap
- +5.1 pp
- Edge
- +9.8%
- Fair odds
- 2.91
- Market odds
- 3.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.06
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.7%
-
Wrexham
- Model
- 34.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 36.0%
- Probability gap
- −1.5 pp
- Edge
- −10.1%
- Fair odds
- 2.89
- Market odds
- 2.60 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.04
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.7%
Outcomes with an edge
Blackburn Rovers at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Biggest edge
Blackburn Rovers at most 1 goal
Model 71.7% vs. bookmaker 64.5%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model can't separate them
35% Wrexham to win
- Attack
- 21st vs 18th
- Wrexham attack v Blackburn Rovers defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 22nd
- Wrexham defence v Blackburn Rovers attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.46 vs -0.62
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.05 – 1.11
- Blackburn Rovers v Wrexham
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Blackburn Rovers | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.98 · 22nd | (better) 1.12 · 19th |
| xGA / match | 1.72 · 23rd | (better) 1.18 · joint 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.74 · 22nd | (better) -0.05 · 12th |
| xPts / match | 0.89 · 23rd | (better) 1.40 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.62 | (better) -0.46 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- Wrexham clean sheet
- 32%
- Wrexham 2+ goals
- 31%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.6%
- 0:0
- 11.6%
- 0:1
- 10.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Blackburn Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Wrexham sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Blackburn Rovers
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Wrexham
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 5 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.