Derby County 2:0 Swansea City: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 14/02/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Derby County Home 0.80 xG · 11 shots

Swansea City Away 1.00 xG · 15 shots

20 The chances were evenly matched

Goals

47' Rhian Brewster Derby County · 0.23 xG chance 1–0
67' Patrick Agyemang Derby County · 0.17 xG chance 2–0

The shots behind it

Derby County Swansea City

Shots: 11; 15
On target: 6; 2
Inside the box: 5; 5
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.10; 0.78
Set-piece xG: 0.74; 0.23
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.84 for Derby County and 1.02 for Swansea City.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 1.86 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Derby County
Swansea City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Derby County

1.36 xG created 0.89 xGA

L 1.35 created, 1.00 conceded against Wrexham
W 1.76 created, 0.99 conceded against Preston North End
W 1.71 created, 0.89 conceded against Charlton Athletic
D 0.29 created, 0.97 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 2.00 created, 0.23 conceded against Bristol City
L 1.03 created, 1.27 conceded against Ipswich Town

Swansea City

1.73 xG created 1.08 xGA

L 1.05 created, 1.93 conceded against Millwall
D 1.60 created, 1.02 conceded against Birmingham City
W 1.01 created, 0.98 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
L 2.05 created, 1.62 conceded against Hull City
W 2.78 created, 0.84 conceded against Watford
W 1.87 created, 0.06 conceded against Sheffield Wednesday

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Derby County: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Swansea City 1:2 Derby County 25/11/2025 xG 0.63 – 1.05

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.