Hull City 4:2 Derby County: xG & match report · Championship

Tuesday, 24/02/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Championship

Hull City Home 0.58 xG · 10 shots

Derby County Away 3.27 xG · 18 shots

42 The result went against the chances

Goals

9' Callum Elder (o.g.) Hull City 1–0
17' Craig Forsyth Derby County · 0.72 xG chance 1–1
39' Oli McBurnie Hull City · 0.19 xG chance 2–1
42' Sammie Szmodics Derby County · 0.30 xG chance 2–2
75' John Egan Hull City · 0.15 xG chance 3–2
84' Lewis Koumas Hull City · 0.10 xG chance 4–2

The shots behind it

Hull City Derby County

Shots: 10; 18
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 6; 14
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.18
Open play xG: 0.57; 1.82
Set-piece xG: 0.02; 1.47
Penalties: —; —

Hull City's shots add up to 0.59 xG and Derby County's to 3.29; the published figures are 0.58 and 3.27.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 3.88 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Hull City
Derby County
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Hull City

1.43 xG created 1.33 xGA

W 1.67 created, 0.90 conceded against Preston North End
W 1.62 created, 2.05 conceded against Swansea City
W 1.47 created, 0.50 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
D 0.30 created, 0.93 conceded against Watford
L 1.39 created, 1.94 conceded against Bristol City
L 2.11 created, 1.64 conceded against Queens Park Rangers

Derby County

1.08 xG created 0.94 xGA

W 1.71 created, 0.89 conceded against Charlton Athletic
D 0.29 created, 0.97 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 2.00 created, 0.23 conceded against Bristol City
L 1.03 created, 1.27 conceded against Ipswich Town
W 0.80 created, 1.00 conceded against Swansea City
L 0.65 created, 1.29 conceded against Watford

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Hull City: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Derby County 2:1 Hull City 04/11/2025 xG 0.84 – 1.28

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.