Saturday, 21/02/2026 at 16:00
Full timeWatford 2:0 Derby County
Goals
- 5' Luca Kjerrumgaard Watford · 0.08 xG chance 1–0
- 90' Mamadou Doumbia Watford · 0.27 xG chance 2–0
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 5
- On target
- 8
- 1
- Inside the box
- 8
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 1.25
- 0.63
- Set-piece xG
- 0.07
- 0.02
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.30 for Watford.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 1.97 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Watford
- Derby County
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.89 xG created 1.01 xGA
- D 0.80 created, 0.62 conceded against Portsmouth
- D 1.15 created, 0.89 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- L 0.84 created, 2.78 conceded against Swansea City
- D 0.93 created, 0.30 conceded against Hull City
- L 0.68 created, 0.80 conceded against Southampton
- D 0.91 created, 0.65 conceded against Preston North End
1.27 xG created 0.89 xGA
- W 1.76 created, 0.99 conceded against Preston North End
- W 1.71 created, 0.89 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- D 0.29 created, 0.97 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- W 2.00 created, 0.23 conceded against Bristol City
- L 1.03 created, 1.27 conceded against Ipswich Town
- W 0.80 created, 1.00 conceded against Swansea City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Model details
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The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.