xgEdge

Expected goals

Lincoln City expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Championship · after 11 matches · updated 21 Oct

Lincoln City's attacking and defensive expected goals in Championship 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Lincoln City xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.25 xG per match
#15/24
Attack (xG per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 West Ham United 2.16
#2 Middlesbrough 1.98
#3 Cardiff City 1.88
#4 Millwall 1.85
#5 Southampton 1.83
#6 Birmingham City 1.77
#7 Wolverhampton 1.71
#8 Swansea City 1.60
#9 Queens Park Rangers 1.50
#10 Norwich City 1.47
#11 Bolton Wanderers 1.40
#12 Portsmouth 1.35
#13 Bristol City 1.32
#14 West Bromwich Albion 1.29
#15 Lincoln City 1.25
#16 Preston North End 1.24
#17 Burnley 1.23
#18 Watford 1.13
#19 Wrexham 1.12
#20 Sheffield United 1.06
#21 Charlton Athletic 1.00
#22 Blackburn Rovers 0.98
#23 Derby County 0.96
#24 Stoke City 0.90
League avg
1.42
Total
13.71 11 matches
Defence
1.37 xGA per match
#12/24
Defence (xGA per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Wolverhampton 0.99
#2 Middlesbrough 1.02
#3 Swansea City 1.14
#4 Portsmouth 1.17
=5 West Ham United 1.18
=5 Wrexham 1.18
#7 Queens Park Rangers 1.20
#8 Birmingham City 1.23
#9 Southampton 1.31
#10 Bristol City 1.35
#11 Millwall 1.37
#12 Lincoln City 1.37
#13 West Bromwich Albion 1.44
#14 Preston North End 1.46
#15 Sheffield United 1.49
#16 Charlton Athletic 1.57
#17 Norwich City 1.60
#18 Burnley 1.62
#19 Cardiff City 1.63
#20 Derby County 1.65
#21 Bolton Wanderers 1.69
#22 Stoke City 1.71
#23 Blackburn Rovers 1.72
#24 Watford 1.88
League avg
1.42
Total
15.09 11 matches
xG difference
-0.13 xGD per match
#13/24
xG difference (xGD per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 West Ham United +0.99
#2 Middlesbrough +0.96
#3 Wolverhampton +0.73
#4 Birmingham City +0.53
#5 Southampton +0.53
#6 Millwall +0.48
#7 Swansea City +0.46
#8 Queens Park Rangers +0.30
#9 Cardiff City +0.25
#10 Portsmouth +0.18
#11 Bristol City -0.03
#12 Wrexham -0.05
#13 Lincoln City -0.13
#14 Norwich City -0.14
#15 West Bromwich Albion -0.15
#16 Preston North End -0.22
#17 Bolton Wanderers -0.30
#18 Burnley -0.40
#19 Sheffield United -0.43
#20 Charlton Athletic -0.57
#21 Derby County -0.69
#22 Blackburn Rovers -0.74
#23 Watford -0.75
#24 Stoke City -0.81
League avg
0.00
Total
-1.38 11 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.37 xPts per match
#13/24
Expected points (xPts per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Middlesbrough 2.03
#2 Wolverhampton 1.90
#3 West Ham United 1.89
#4 Birmingham City 1.75
#5 Southampton 1.73
#6 Millwall 1.68
#7 Swansea City 1.63
#8 Queens Park Rangers 1.61
#9 Cardiff City 1.51
#10 Portsmouth 1.51
#11 Bristol City 1.44
#12 Wrexham 1.40
#13 Lincoln City 1.37
#14 Norwich City 1.26
#15 West Bromwich Albion 1.25
#16 Preston North End 1.20
#17 Bolton Wanderers 1.15
#18 Derby County 1.07
#19 Sheffield United 1.07
#20 Burnley 1.05
#21 Charlton Athletic 1.00
#22 Stoke City 0.91
#23 Blackburn Rovers 0.89
#24 Watford 0.88
League avg
1.38
Total
15.09 vs 12 actual pts

What the xG says

Lincoln City's underlying numbers sit close to the Championship average. They rank #13 for xG difference at -0.13 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 9 goals are 4.71 below 13.71 xG, while 12 points are 3.09 below 15.09 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 2.00 xG from penalties
9 13.71 -4.71 scored 4.71 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
19 15.09 +3.91 conceded 3.91 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
12 15.09 -3.09 3.09 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Lincoln City are 4.71 goals below their xG after 11 matches. The gap was widest at -5.98, against West Ham United on Wed 14/10.

Goals
9
xG
13.71
Gap
-4.71
Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Tue 01/09 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Tue 15/09 Sat 19/09 Sat 10/10 Wed 14/10 Sat 17/10 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +0.43 -0.89 -1.21 -2.67 -3.94 -3.60 -3.13 -4.24 -5.63 -5.98 -4.71 +0.43 -1.32 -0.32 -1.46 -1.27 +0.34 +0.47 -1.11 -1.39 -0.35 +1.27 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Lincoln City: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 15/08 Middlesbrough 1 0.57 +0.43 +0.43
Sat 22/08 Portsmouth 1 2.32 -1.32 -0.89
Sat 29/08 Bolton Wanderers 1 1.32 -0.32 -1.21
Tue 01/09 Blackburn Rovers 0 1.46 -1.46 -2.67
Sat 05/09 Southampton 1 2.27 -1.27 -3.94
Sat 12/09 Preston North End 1 0.66 +0.34 -3.60
Tue 15/09 Bristol City 1 0.53 +0.47 -3.13
Sat 19/09 Swansea City 1 2.11 -1.11 -4.24
Sat 10/10 Sheffield United 0 1.39 -1.39 -5.63
Wed 14/10 West Ham United 0 0.35 -0.35 -5.98
Sat 17/10 Millwall 2 0.73 +1.27 -4.71

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Lincoln City xG trend

Current form -0.60 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 11 matches. The worst was against West Ham United on Wed 14/10 (-2.85).

npxG · last 6
0.81
npxGA · last 6
1.41
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.60 Sat 15/08 +0.35 Sat 22/08 -0.52 Sat 29/08 +1.18 Tue 01/09 +1.49 Sat 05/09 +0.09 Sat 12/09 -0.61 Tue 15/09 -0.15 Sat 19/09 +0.97 Sat 10/10 -2.85 Wed 14/10 -1.08 Sat 17/10 -0.25 season avg
Lincoln City: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 15/08 Middlesbrough 0.62 2.22 -1.60 -1.60
Sat 22/08 Portsmouth 1.50 1.15 +0.35 -0.63
Sat 29/08 Bolton Wanderers 1.05 1.57 -0.52 -0.59
Tue 01/09 Blackburn Rovers 1.44 0.26 +1.18 -0.15
Sat 05/09 Southampton 2.27 0.78 +1.49 +0.18
Sat 12/09 Preston North End 0.64 0.55 +0.09 +0.16
Tue 15/09 Bristol City 0.85 1.46 -0.61 +0.05
Sat 19/09 Swansea City 0.70 0.85 -0.15 +0.03
Sat 10/10 Sheffield United 1.54 0.57 +0.97 +0.13
Wed 14/10 West Ham United 0.35 3.20 -2.85 -0.17
Sat 17/10 Millwall 0.75 1.83 -1.08 -0.25

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.06 npxG and 1.31 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 1 hardest of 24 in Championship
+0.08 xG vs league average
Over 11 league matches
Last 5
tied number 6 hardest of 24 in Championship
+0.09 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.08 xG vs league average · over 11 matches · tied number 1 hardest of 24

  1. Millwall Away +0.22
  2. West Ham United Home +0.50
  3. Sheffield United Away −0.31
  4. Swansea City Home +0.14
  5. Bristol City Away −0.11
  6. Preston North End Away −0.26
  7. Southampton Home +0.19
  8. Blackburn Rovers Home −0.33
  9. Bolton Wanderers Away −0.05
  10. Portsmouth Home +0.11
  11. Middlesbrough Away +0.74

Last 5

+0.09 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 6 hardest of 24

  1. Millwall Away +0.22
  2. West Ham United Home +0.50
  3. Sheffield United Away −0.31
  4. Swansea City Home +0.14
  5. Bristol City Away −0.11

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Lincoln City shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. Lincoln City take 11.5 shots a match (league 13.5) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =18 in Championship for volume and #15 for quality. 69% of their shots come from inside the box (league 67%), and set pieces produce 36% of their npxG (league 28%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.5 shots per match
=18/24
Shot volume (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Middlesbrough 19.1
#2 Cardiff City 17.2
#3 West Ham United 16.3
#4 Wolverhampton 16.2
#5 Portsmouth 15.3
#6 Southampton 15.2
#7 Queens Park Rangers 15.1
=8 Burnley 14.3
=8 Millwall 14.3
#10 Bristol City 14.0
#11 Norwich City 13.9
#12 Bolton Wanderers 13.8
#13 Birmingham City 13.7
#14 Watford 13.0
#15 Derby County 12.7
=16 Preston North End 12.1
=16 Swansea City 12.1
=18 Lincoln City 11.5
=18 West Bromwich Albion 11.5
=20 Stoke City 11.4
=20 Wrexham 11.4
#22 Blackburn Rovers 11.2
#23 Charlton Athletic 10.2
#24 Sheffield United 9.4
League avg
13.5
Total
127 shots from 11 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#15/24
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Swansea City 0.13
#2 Millwall 0.12
#3 Birmingham City 0.12
#4 West Ham United 0.12
#5 Southampton 0.11
#6 Sheffield United 0.11
#7 Middlesbrough 0.10
#8 Charlton Athletic 0.10
#9 Cardiff City 0.10
#10 Wrexham 0.10
#11 Wolverhampton 0.10
#12 West Bromwich Albion 0.10
#13 Preston North End 0.09
#14 Queens Park Rangers 0.09
#15 Lincoln City 0.09
#16 Norwich City 0.09
#17 Bristol City 0.09
#18 Bolton Wanderers 0.09
#19 Watford 0.08
#20 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#21 Portsmouth 0.08
#22 Burnley 0.08
#23 Derby County 0.07
#24 Stoke City 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
11.71 npxG from 127 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.4 shots per match
#22/24
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Swansea City 10.8
#2 Wolverhampton 10.9
=3 Middlesbrough 11.0
=3 Portsmouth 11.0
=5 West Bromwich Albion 11.5
=5 West Ham United 11.5
#7 Wrexham 11.6
=8 Birmingham City 11.7
=8 Queens Park Rangers 11.7
#10 Bristol City 12.0
#11 Norwich City 12.5
#12 Bolton Wanderers 12.8
#13 Millwall 13.5
#14 Burnley 14.1
#15 Derby County 14.2
#16 Southampton 14.7
#17 Cardiff City 15.1
#18 Preston North End 15.8
=19 Sheffield United 15.9
=19 Watford 15.9
#21 Stoke City 16.2
#22 Lincoln City 16.4
#23 Blackburn Rovers 16.8
#24 Charlton Athletic 17.1
League avg
13.5
Total
180 shots allowed from 11 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.08 npxGA per shot
#3/24
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Southampton 0.08
#2 Charlton Athletic 0.08
#3 Lincoln City 0.08
#4 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#5 Wolverhampton 0.08
#6 Sheffield United 0.09
#7 West Ham United 0.09
#8 Preston North End 0.09
#9 Millwall 0.09
#10 Middlesbrough 0.09
#11 Stoke City 0.09
#12 Swansea City 0.09
#13 Wrexham 0.09
#14 Cardiff City 0.10
#15 Bristol City 0.10
#16 Portsmouth 0.10
#17 Queens Park Rangers 0.10
#18 Birmingham City 0.10
#19 Burnley 0.10
#20 Watford 0.11
#21 Derby County 0.11
#22 West Bromwich Albion 0.12
#23 Norwich City 0.13
#24 Bolton Wanderers 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
14.44 npxGA from 180 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

69% inside the box

League avg 67%

From 87 of 127 shots over 11 matches

Shots allowed, location

58% allowed inside the box

League avg 67%

From 105 of 180 shots allowed over 11 matches

Where the npxG comes from

64% open play · 36% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 4.2 of 11.7 npxG over 11 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

69% open play · 31% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 4.4 of 14.4 npxG allowed over 11 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Lincoln City home and away xG

Lincoln City per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 6
xG / match 1.70 0.87
xGA / match 1.27 1.46
xGD / match +0.43 -0.59
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.87 0.95

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Lincoln City match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
1.02
xGA / match
1.63
xGD / match
-0.61
Points
4 of 15
  1. Sat 17/10 Millwall A xG 0.73 xGA 1.84 xGD -1.11
  2. Wed 14/10 West Ham United H Weakest underlying xG 0.35 xGA 3.20 xGD -2.85
  3. Sat 10/10 Sheffield United A xG 1.39 xGA 0.68 xGD +0.71
  4. Sat 19/09 Swansea City H Against the chances xG 2.11 P xGA 0.92 xGD +1.19
  5. Tue 15/09 Bristol City A Against the chances xG 0.53 xGA 1.53 xGD -1.00

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.20. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Lincoln City in Championship

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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