Tuesday, 13/10/2026 at 21:00
Full timeStoke City 2:3 Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Middlesbrough's attack: 2.57 xG against 1.85 projected (+0.72). Stoke City produced 0.65 xG against 0.98 projected (−0.33).
Goals
- 48' Callum Brittain Middlesbrough · 0.09 xG chance 0–1
- 50' Neto Borges (o.g.) Stoke City 1–1
- 73' Will Lankshear Middlesbrough · 1.00 xG chance 1–2
- 85' Róbert Boženík Stoke City · 0.16 xG chance 2–2
- 90' Neto Borges Middlesbrough · 0.28 xG chance 2–3
The model against the result
- Stoke City
- 17%
- Draw
- 26%
- Middlesbrough
- 57% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Middlesbrough produced 0.72 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 20
- On target
- 2
- 9
- Inside the box
- 5
- 16
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 0.54
- 1.30
- Set-piece xG
- 0.13
- 1.33
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.66 for Stoke City and 2.61 for Middlesbrough.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 3.30 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Stoke City
- Middlesbrough
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.04 xG created 1.61 xGA
- W 0.22 created, 1.44 conceded against Norwich City
- W 2.14 created, 0.61 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- D 1.11 created, 3.60 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 1.50 created, 0.39 conceded against Watford
- W 0.54 created, 0.48 conceded against Sheffield United
- W 0.74 created, 3.13 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
1.73 xG created 1.15 xGA
- D 1.22 created, 0.64 conceded against Burnley
- W 2.53 created, 1.03 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- W 2.07 created, 1.62 conceded against Norwich City
- D 1.52 created, 1.69 conceded against Millwall
- D 2.14 created, 1.23 conceded against Birmingham City
- W 0.90 created, 0.68 conceded against Wolverhampton
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged4 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough to win | 1.95 | +12.0% | Won |
| Middlesbrough 2+ goals | 1.83 | +5.2% | Won |
| Stoke City not to score | 3.00 | +4.7% | Lost |
| Stoke City at most 1 goal | 1.40 | +4.4% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +1.7% | Won |
| Middlesbrough to score | 1.17 | +1.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 16.6% | 25.3% | −8.7 pp | 6.02 |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.7% | −0.8 pp | 3.85 |
| Middlesbrough | 57.4% | 48.0% | +9.5 pp | 1.74 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City to score | 65.1% | 68.7% | −3.7 pp | 1.54 |
| Stoke City not to score | 34.9% | 31.3% | +3.7 pp | 2.86 |
| Middlesbrough to score | 86.7% | 81.1% | +5.6 pp | 1.15 |
| Middlesbrough not to score | 13.3% | 18.9% | −5.6 pp | 7.49 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 57.7% | +0.2 pp | 1.73 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.1% | 42.3% | −0.2 pp | 2.38 |
| Stoke City 2+ goals | 25.4% | 33.7% | −8.3 pp | 3.93 |
| Stoke City at most 1 goal | 74.6% | 66.3% | +8.3 pp | 1.34 |
| Middlesbrough 2+ goals | 57.4% | 50.0% | +7.4 pp | 1.74 |
| Middlesbrough at most 1 goal | 42.6% | 50.0% | −7.4 pp | 2.35 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | 76.2% | +5.1 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.7% | 23.8% | −5.1 pp | 5.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | 52.6% | +2.7 pp | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.6% | 47.4% | −2.7 pp | 2.24 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Stoke City sample
- 20 matches
- Middlesbrough sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.