xgEdge

Expected goals

Preston North End expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Championship · after 11 matches · updated 21 Oct

Preston North End's attacking and defensive expected goals in Championship 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Preston North End xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.24 xG per match
#16/24
Attack (xG per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 West Ham United 2.16
#2 Middlesbrough 1.98
#3 Cardiff City 1.88
#4 Millwall 1.85
#5 Southampton 1.83
#6 Birmingham City 1.77
#7 Wolverhampton 1.71
#8 Swansea City 1.60
#9 Queens Park Rangers 1.50
#10 Norwich City 1.47
#11 Bolton Wanderers 1.40
#12 Portsmouth 1.35
#13 Bristol City 1.32
#14 West Bromwich Albion 1.29
#15 Lincoln City 1.25
#16 Preston North End 1.24
#17 Burnley 1.23
#18 Watford 1.13
#19 Wrexham 1.12
#20 Sheffield United 1.06
#21 Charlton Athletic 1.00
#22 Blackburn Rovers 0.98
#23 Derby County 0.96
#24 Stoke City 0.90
League avg
1.42
Total
13.62 11 matches
Defence
1.46 xGA per match
#14/24
Defence (xGA per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Wolverhampton 0.99
#2 Middlesbrough 1.02
#3 Swansea City 1.14
#4 Portsmouth 1.17
=5 West Ham United 1.18
=5 Wrexham 1.18
#7 Queens Park Rangers 1.20
#8 Birmingham City 1.23
#9 Southampton 1.31
#10 Bristol City 1.35
#11 Millwall 1.37
#12 Lincoln City 1.37
#13 West Bromwich Albion 1.44
#14 Preston North End 1.46
#15 Sheffield United 1.49
#16 Charlton Athletic 1.57
#17 Norwich City 1.60
#18 Burnley 1.62
#19 Cardiff City 1.63
#20 Derby County 1.65
#21 Bolton Wanderers 1.69
#22 Stoke City 1.71
#23 Blackburn Rovers 1.72
#24 Watford 1.88
League avg
1.42
Total
16.08 11 matches
xG difference
-0.22 xGD per match
#16/24
xG difference (xGD per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 West Ham United +0.99
#2 Middlesbrough +0.96
#3 Wolverhampton +0.73
#4 Birmingham City +0.53
#5 Southampton +0.53
#6 Millwall +0.48
#7 Swansea City +0.46
#8 Queens Park Rangers +0.30
#9 Cardiff City +0.25
#10 Portsmouth +0.18
#11 Bristol City -0.03
#12 Wrexham -0.05
#13 Lincoln City -0.13
#14 Norwich City -0.14
#15 West Bromwich Albion -0.15
#16 Preston North End -0.22
#17 Bolton Wanderers -0.30
#18 Burnley -0.40
#19 Sheffield United -0.43
#20 Charlton Athletic -0.57
#21 Derby County -0.69
#22 Blackburn Rovers -0.74
#23 Watford -0.75
#24 Stoke City -0.81
League avg
0.00
Total
-2.46 11 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.20 xPts per match
#16/24
Expected points (xPts per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Middlesbrough 2.03
#2 Wolverhampton 1.90
#3 West Ham United 1.89
#4 Birmingham City 1.75
#5 Southampton 1.73
#6 Millwall 1.68
#7 Swansea City 1.63
#8 Queens Park Rangers 1.61
#9 Cardiff City 1.51
#10 Portsmouth 1.51
#11 Bristol City 1.44
#12 Wrexham 1.40
#13 Lincoln City 1.37
#14 Norwich City 1.26
#15 West Bromwich Albion 1.25
#16 Preston North End 1.20
#17 Bolton Wanderers 1.15
#18 Derby County 1.07
#19 Sheffield United 1.07
#20 Burnley 1.05
#21 Charlton Athletic 1.00
#22 Stoke City 0.91
#23 Blackburn Rovers 0.89
#24 Watford 0.88
League avg
1.38
Total
13.16 vs 4 actual pts

What the xG says

Preston North End's underlying numbers sit close to the Championship average. They rank #16 for xG difference at -0.22 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 9 goals are 4.62 below 13.62 xG, while 4 points are 9.16 below 13.16 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.19 xG from penalties
9 13.62 -4.62 scored 4.62 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
24 16.08 +7.92 conceded 7.92 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
4 13.16 -9.16 9.16 points below xPts far outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Preston North End are 4.62 goals below their xG after 11 matches. The gap was widest at -4.90, against Birmingham City on Tue 13/10.

Goals
9
xG
13.62
Gap
-4.62
Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Tue 01/09 Sat 05/09 Tue 08/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 Sat 10/10 Tue 13/10 Sat 17/10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.12 +0.22 -1.10 -2.01 -2.20 -3.68 -4.26 -3.76 -4.41 -4.90 -4.62 -0.12 +0.34 -1.32 -0.91 -0.19 -1.48 -0.58 +0.50 -0.65 -0.49 +0.28 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Preston North End: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 15/08 Bolton Wanderers 1 1.12 -0.12 -0.12
Sat 22/08 Wolverhampton 1 0.66 +0.34 +0.22
Sat 29/08 Charlton Athletic 0 1.32 -1.32 -1.10
Tue 01/09 Bristol City 1 1.91 -0.91 -2.01
Sat 05/09 Blackburn Rovers 2 2.19 -0.19 -2.20
Tue 08/09 Watford 1 2.48 -1.48 -3.68
Sat 12/09 Lincoln City 0 0.58 -0.58 -4.26
Sat 19/09 Queens Park Rangers 2 1.50 +0.50 -3.76
Sat 10/10 Millwall 0 0.65 -0.65 -4.41
Tue 13/10 Birmingham City 0 0.49 -0.49 -4.90
Sat 17/10 Wrexham 1 0.72 +0.28 -4.62

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Preston North End xG trend

Current form -0.57 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 11 matches. The worst was against Birmingham City on Tue 13/10 (-1.72).

npxG · last 6
1.02
npxGA · last 6
1.59
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.30 Sat 15/08 -0.81 Sat 22/08 +0.04 Sat 29/08 -0.09 Tue 01/09 +0.81 Sat 05/09 +1.22 Tue 08/09 -0.09 Sat 12/09 -1.15 Sat 19/09 -0.51 Sat 10/10 -1.72 Tue 13/10 -1.14 Sat 17/10 -0.29 season avg
Preston North End: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 15/08 Bolton Wanderers 1.41 1.11 +0.30 +0.30
Sat 22/08 Wolverhampton 0.67 1.48 -0.81 -0.25
Sat 29/08 Charlton Athletic 0.91 0.87 +0.04 -0.16
Tue 01/09 Bristol City 1.77 1.86 -0.09 -0.14
Sat 05/09 Blackburn Rovers 1.54 0.73 +0.81 +0.05
Tue 08/09 Watford 2.48 1.26 +1.22 +0.24
Sat 12/09 Lincoln City 0.55 0.64 -0.09 +0.20
Sat 19/09 Queens Park Rangers 1.31 2.46 -1.15 +0.03
Sat 10/10 Millwall 0.58 1.09 -0.51 -0.03
Tue 13/10 Birmingham City 0.49 2.21 -1.72 -0.20
Sat 17/10 Wrexham 0.72 1.86 -1.14 -0.29

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.13 npxG and 1.42 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 17 hardest of 24 in Championship
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 11 league matches
Last 5
number 9 hardest of 24 in Championship
+0.08 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 11 matches · tied number 17 hardest of 24

  1. Wrexham Away −0.05
  2. Birmingham City Away +0.22
  3. Millwall Home +0.22
  4. Queens Park Rangers Away +0.20
  5. Lincoln City Home −0.19
  6. Watford Away −0.39
  7. Blackburn Rovers Home −0.33
  8. Bristol City Home −0.11
  9. Charlton Athletic Away −0.40
  10. Wolverhampton Home +0.43
  11. Bolton Wanderers Away −0.05

Last 5

+0.08 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 9 hardest of 24

  1. Wrexham Away −0.05
  2. Birmingham City Away +0.22
  3. Millwall Home +0.22
  4. Queens Park Rangers Away +0.20
  5. Lincoln City Home −0.19

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Preston North End shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. Preston North End take 12.1 shots a match (league 13.5) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =16 in Championship for volume and #13 for quality. 63% of their shots come from inside the box (league 67%), and set pieces produce 36% of their npxG (league 28%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.1 shots per match
=16/24
Shot volume (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Middlesbrough 19.1
#2 Cardiff City 17.2
#3 West Ham United 16.3
#4 Wolverhampton 16.2
#5 Portsmouth 15.3
#6 Southampton 15.2
#7 Queens Park Rangers 15.1
=8 Burnley 14.3
=8 Millwall 14.3
#10 Bristol City 14.0
#11 Norwich City 13.9
#12 Bolton Wanderers 13.8
#13 Birmingham City 13.7
#14 Watford 13.0
#15 Derby County 12.7
=16 Preston North End 12.1
=16 Swansea City 12.1
=18 Lincoln City 11.5
=18 West Bromwich Albion 11.5
=20 Stoke City 11.4
=20 Wrexham 11.4
#22 Blackburn Rovers 11.2
#23 Charlton Athletic 10.2
#24 Sheffield United 9.4
League avg
13.5
Total
133 shots from 11 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#13/24
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Swansea City 0.13
#2 Millwall 0.12
#3 Birmingham City 0.12
#4 West Ham United 0.12
#5 Southampton 0.11
#6 Sheffield United 0.11
#7 Middlesbrough 0.10
#8 Charlton Athletic 0.10
#9 Cardiff City 0.10
#10 Wrexham 0.10
#11 Wolverhampton 0.10
#12 West Bromwich Albion 0.10
#13 Preston North End 0.09
#14 Queens Park Rangers 0.09
#15 Lincoln City 0.09
#16 Norwich City 0.09
#17 Bristol City 0.09
#18 Bolton Wanderers 0.09
#19 Watford 0.08
#20 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#21 Portsmouth 0.08
#22 Burnley 0.08
#23 Derby County 0.07
#24 Stoke City 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
12.43 npxG from 133 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.8 shots per match
#18/24
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Swansea City 10.8
#2 Wolverhampton 10.9
=3 Middlesbrough 11.0
=3 Portsmouth 11.0
=5 West Bromwich Albion 11.5
=5 West Ham United 11.5
#7 Wrexham 11.6
=8 Birmingham City 11.7
=8 Queens Park Rangers 11.7
#10 Bristol City 12.0
#11 Norwich City 12.5
#12 Bolton Wanderers 12.8
#13 Millwall 13.5
#14 Burnley 14.1
#15 Derby County 14.2
#16 Southampton 14.7
#17 Cardiff City 15.1
#18 Preston North End 15.8
=19 Sheffield United 15.9
=19 Watford 15.9
#21 Stoke City 16.2
#22 Lincoln City 16.4
#23 Blackburn Rovers 16.8
#24 Charlton Athletic 17.1
League avg
13.5
Total
174 shots allowed from 11 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#8/24
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Southampton 0.08
#2 Charlton Athletic 0.08
#3 Lincoln City 0.08
#4 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#5 Wolverhampton 0.08
#6 Sheffield United 0.09
#7 West Ham United 0.09
#8 Preston North End 0.09
#9 Millwall 0.09
#10 Middlesbrough 0.09
#11 Stoke City 0.09
#12 Swansea City 0.09
#13 Wrexham 0.09
#14 Cardiff City 0.10
#15 Bristol City 0.10
#16 Portsmouth 0.10
#17 Queens Park Rangers 0.10
#18 Birmingham City 0.10
#19 Burnley 0.10
#20 Watford 0.11
#21 Derby County 0.11
#22 West Bromwich Albion 0.12
#23 Norwich City 0.13
#24 Bolton Wanderers 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
15.57 npxGA from 174 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

63% inside the box

League avg 67%

From 84 of 133 shots over 11 matches

Shots allowed, location

61% allowed inside the box

League avg 67%

From 106 of 174 shots allowed over 11 matches

Where the npxG comes from

64% open play · 36% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 4.5 of 12.4 npxG over 11 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

72% open play · 28% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 4.5 of 15.6 npxG allowed over 11 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Preston North End home and away xG

Preston North End per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 6
xG / match 1.20 1.27
xGA / match 1.23 1.65
xGD / match -0.03 -0.38
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.27 1.13

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Preston North End match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
0.79
xGA / match
1.68
xGD / match
-0.89
Points
1 of 15
  1. Sat 17/10 Wrexham A xG 0.72 xGA 1.86 xGD -1.14
  2. Tue 13/10 Birmingham City A Weakest underlying xG 0.49 xGA 2.24 xGD -1.75
  3. Sat 10/10 Millwall H xG 0.65 xGA 1.09 xGD -0.44
  4. Sat 19/09 Queens Park Rangers A xG 1.50 xGA 2.54 xGD -1.04
  5. Sat 12/09 Lincoln City H Best underlying xG 0.58 xGA 0.66 xGD -0.08

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Preston North End in Championship

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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