Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 13:30
2d 15h to kick-offSheffield United – Derby County
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Top odds updated 21 October, 15:00
What the model expects
- Sheffield United
- 37%
- Draw
- 32%
- Derby County
- 31%
| Sheffield United | Draw | Derby County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.68 | 3.16 | 3.21 |
- Total goals
- 2.50
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
Sheffield United
- Model
- 37.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 51.2%
- Probability gap
- −13.9 pp
- Edge
- −33.0%
- Fair odds
- 2.68
- Market odds
- 1.80 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.82
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 31.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.3%
- Probability gap
- +5.3 pp
- Edge
- +10.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.16
- Market odds
- 3.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.32
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
-
Derby County
- Model
- 31.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 22.5%
- Probability gap
- +8.6 pp
- Edge
- +27.6%
- Fair odds
- 3.21
- Market odds
- 4.10 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.37
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
Outcomes with an edge
Derby County to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Sheffield United not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Sheffield United at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Derby County 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Derby County to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Biggest edge
Derby County to win
Model 31.1% vs. bookmaker 22.5%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Sheffield United
37% Sheffield United to win
- Attack
- 20th vs 17th
- Sheffield United attack v Derby County defence
- Defence
- 19th vs 16th
- Sheffield United defence v Derby County attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.37 vs -0.16
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.31 – 1.19
- Sheffield United v Derby County
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sheffield United | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.06 · 20th | 0.96 · 23rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.49 · 15th | 1.65 · 20th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.43 · 19th | -0.69 · 21st |
| xPts / match | 1.07 · 19th | (better) 1.07 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.37 | (better) -0.16 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Sheffield United clean sheet
- 28%
- Sheffield United 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.2%
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 8.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sheffield United sample
- 20 matches
- Derby County sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sheffield United
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Derby County
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 6 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.