Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Sparta Rotterdam – NEC Nijmegen
Model updated 5 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Sparta Rotterdam
- 32%
- Draw
- 26%
- NEC Nijmegen
- 42%
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | NEC Nijmegen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.12 | 3.81 | 2.40 |
- Total goals
- 3.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans NEC Nijmegen
42% NEC Nijmegen to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 16th
- NEC Nijmegen attack v Sparta Rotterdam defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 11th
- NEC Nijmegen defence v Sparta Rotterdam attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.45 vs -0.12
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.59 – 1.80
- Sparta Rotterdam v NEC Nijmegen
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sparta Rotterdam | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.64 · 7th | 1.60 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 2.10 · 15th | (better) 1.92 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -0.46 · 11th | (better) -0.32 · 9th |
| xPts / match | 1.15 · 11th | (better) 1.18 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.12 | -0.45 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet
- 18%
- NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.4%
- 1:2
- 9.8%
- 2:1
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sparta Rotterdam sample
- 20 matches
- NEC Nijmegen sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sparta Rotterdam
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · NEC Nijmegen
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.