Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Aston Villa – Leeds United
Model updated 4 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Aston Villa
- 37%
- Draw
- 30%
- Leeds United
- 32%
| Aston Villa | Draw | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.67 | 3.28 | 3.12 |
- Total goals
- 2.67
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Aston Villa
37% Aston Villa to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 10th
- Aston Villa attack v Leeds United defence
- Defence
- 18th vs 14th
- Aston Villa defence v Leeds United attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.71 vs +0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.39 – 1.28
- Aston Villa v Leeds United
Squad news
Aston Villa
13 listed-
Ollie Watkins 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Ian Maatsen 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Pau Torres 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Brian Madjo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Leon Bailey 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Olympiakos permanently
-
Kosta Nedeljkovic 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Rangers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Marco Bizot 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Back injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Luka Lynch 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan until January
-
Leon Goretzka 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Lucas Digne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Paris Saint-Germain permanently
-
Amadou Onana 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Samuel Iling-Junior 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Bolton Wanderers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Alysson 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Leeds United
8 listed-
Harry Wilson 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Joe Rodon 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
-
Lucas Perri 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Torino on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joël Piroe 0% chance
Forward · Has joined West Ham United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mateo Joseph Fernández-Regatillo 0% chance
Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Jack Harrison 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined New England Revolution permanently
-
Wilfried Gnonto 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined ACF Fiorentina on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sebastiaan Bornauw 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Hamburg SV on loan for the rest of the season
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Aston Villa | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.91 · 20th | (better) 1.56 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.84 · 19th | (better) 1.27 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.94 · 20th | (better) +0.29 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 0.90 · 18th | (better) 1.55 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.71 | (better) +0.07 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Aston Villa clean sheet
- 25%
- Aston Villa 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.4%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Aston Villa
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Leeds United
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.