Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Leeds United – Aston Villa
Model updated 4 October, 09:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Leeds United
- 45%
- Draw
- 30%
- Aston Villa
- 25%
| Leeds United | Draw | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.22 | 3.38 | 3.93 |
- Total goals
- 2.70
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Leeds United
45% Leeds United to win
- Attack
- 14th vs 18th
- Leeds United attack v Aston Villa defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 15th
- Leeds United defence v Aston Villa attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.07 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.55 – 1.15
- Leeds United v Aston Villa
Squad news
Leeds United
8 listed-
Harry Wilson 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Joe Rodon 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
-
Lucas Perri 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Torino on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joël Piroe 0% chance
Forward · Has joined West Ham United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mateo Joseph Fernández-Regatillo 0% chance
Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Jack Harrison 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined New England Revolution permanently
-
Sebastiaan Bornauw 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Hamburg SV on loan for the rest of the season
-
Wilfried Gnonto 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined ACF Fiorentina on loan for the rest of the season
Aston Villa
13 listed-
Ollie Watkins 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Ian Maatsen 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Pau Torres 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Brian Madjo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Leon Bailey 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Olympiakos permanently
-
Kosta Nedeljkovic 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Rangers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Marco Bizot 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Back injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Luka Lynch 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan until January
-
Leon Goretzka 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Lucas Digne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Paris Saint-Germain permanently
-
Amadou Onana 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Samuel Iling-Junior 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Bolton Wanderers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Alysson 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Leeds United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.56 · 9th | 0.91 · 20th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.27 · 5th | 1.84 · 19th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.29 · 8th | -0.94 · 20th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.55 · 8th | 0.90 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.07 | -0.71 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Leeds United clean sheet
- 29%
- Leeds United 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 2:0
- 8.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Leeds United
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Aston Villa
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.