Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 12:00
Kicked off · odds lockedFC Livyi Bereh Kyiv – Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 33%
- Mkt 34% Market 34%
- Fair 3.06 Fair odds 3.06
- Draw
- 28%
- Mkt 28% Market 28%
- Fair 3.51 Fair odds 3.51
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- 39%
- Mkt 38% Market 38%
- Fair 2.57 Fair odds 2.57
No qualified edge
The largest edge is Over 2.5 goals at +15.8%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: Kicked off. How this is decided →
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 11/20
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi 9/20
- Model updated 31 October, 09:30
- Top odds updated 31 October, 06:00
One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Where the model disagrees with the market
Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices, locked at kick-off.
Match result
Model against the market
Draw
- Model
- 28.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.5%
- Probability gap
- +1.0 pp
- Edge
- −7.4%
- Fair odds
- 3.51
- Market odds
- 3.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.68
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.8%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win
- Model
- 38.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 38.1%
- Probability gap
- +0.8 pp
- Edge
- −8.7%
- Fair odds
- 2.57
- Market odds
- 2.35 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.70
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.8%
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to win
- Model
- 32.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 34.4%
- Probability gap
- −1.8 pp
- Edge
- −15.2%
- Fair odds
- 3.06
- Market odds
- 2.60 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.22
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.8%
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →
Recent form
- D 0.34 created, 0.46 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
- L 0.23 created, 1.55 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- W 1.46 created, 1.36 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- L 0.66 created, 2.20 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- L 0.60 created, 2.64 conceded against Metalist 1925
- D 0.72 created, 0.70 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- W 1.42 created, 2.62 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- D 2.18 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- D 2.31 created, 0.70 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- L 0.82 created, 3.04 conceded against Metalist 1925
- D 0.72 created, 2.64 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- L 2.14 created, 2.31 conceded against Kudrivka
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals
- 48%
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi clean sheet
- 21%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 13.6%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
- 2:1
- 9.1%
Why the model leans Bukovyna Chernivtsi, but not by much
Bukovyna Chernivtsi's attack and recent form carry the lean; its defence does not back it.
- Attack
- Favours Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- 5th vs 9th
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi attack v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv defence
- Defence
- Favours FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 15th vs 13th
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi defence v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- -0.65 vs -0.82
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv | Bukovyna Chernivtsi |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.86 · 14th | (better) 1.77 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.29 · 6th | 2.11 · 14th |
| xGD / match | -0.43 · 10th | (better) -0.34 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 1.05 · 11th | (better) 1.24 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.82 | (better) -0.65 |
Got a different price?
Type your bookmaker's odds for any market and see their edge against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details· 1 warning
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv sample
- 11 matches
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi sample
- 9 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 09:30
- Odds updated
- 16 hours ago
Warnings
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.