Tuesday, 24/11/2026 at 20:45
33d 16h to kick-offCardiff City – Preston North End
Model updated 22 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Cardiff City
- 51%
- Draw
- 26%
- Preston North End
- 23%
| Cardiff City | Draw | Preston North End | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.97 | 3.84 | 4.31 |
- Total goals
- 3.17
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Cardiff City
51% Cardiff City to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 23rd
- Cardiff City attack v Preston North End defence
- Defence
- 20th vs 14th
- Cardiff City defence v Preston North End attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.69 vs -0.57
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.89 – 1.28
- Cardiff City v Preston North End
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Cardiff City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.88 · 3rd | 1.24 · 16th |
| xGA / match | 1.63 · 19th | (better) 1.46 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.25 · 9th | -0.22 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.51 · 9th | 1.20 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.69 | -0.57 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- Cardiff City clean sheet
- 25%
- Cardiff City 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.2%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 2:0
- 7.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cardiff City sample
- 11 matches
- Preston North End sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Cardiff City
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Preston North End
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 22/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.