Saturday, 28/11/2026 at 16:00
37d 19h to kick-offDerby County – Watford
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Derby County
- 45%
- Draw
- 30%
- Watford
- 25%
| Derby County | Draw | Watford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.24 | 3.34 | 3.93 |
- Total goals
- 2.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Derby County
45% Derby County to win
- Attack
- 16th vs 24th
- Derby County attack v Watford defence
- Defence
- 17th vs 19th
- Derby County defence v Watford attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.16 vs -0.84
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.52 – 1.13
- Derby County v Watford
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Derby County | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.96 · 23rd | (better) 1.13 · 18th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.65 · 20th | 1.88 · 24th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.69 · 21st | -0.75 · 23rd |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.07 · 18th | 0.88 · 24th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.16 | -0.84 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Derby County clean sheet
- 30%
- Derby County 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 1:0
- 8.5%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Derby County sample
- 20 matches
- Watford sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Derby County
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Watford
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.