Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 20:45
13d 0h to kick-offWatford – Lincoln City
Model updated 21 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Watford
- 35%
- Draw
- 31%
- Lincoln City
- 33%
| Watford | Draw | Lincoln City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.83 | 3.20 | 2.99 |
- Total goals
- 2.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Watford to win
- Attack
- 19th vs 15th
- Watford attack v Lincoln City defence
- Defence
- 24th vs 18th
- Watford defence v Lincoln City attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.84 vs -0.50
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.30 – 1.26
- Watford v Lincoln City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Watford | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.13 · 18th | (better) 1.25 · 15th |
| xGA / match | 1.88 · 24th | (better) 1.37 · 12th |
| xGD / match | -0.75 · 23rd | (better) -0.13 · 13th |
| xPts / match | 0.88 · 24th | (better) 1.37 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.84 | (better) -0.50 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Watford clean sheet
- 25%
- Watford 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.0%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Watford sample
- 20 matches
- Lincoln City sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · Watford
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Lincoln City
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.