Millwall 2:0 Stoke City: xG & match report · Championship

Tuesday, 21/10/2025 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Championship

Millwall Home 1.48 xG · 15 shots

Stoke City Away 0.44 xG · 12 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

10' Femi Azeez Millwall · 0.26 xG chance 1–0
21' Tristan Crama Millwall · 0.20 xG chance 2–0

The shots behind it

Millwall Stoke City

Shots: 15; 12
On target: 7; 3
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.04
Open play xG: 0.84; 0.42
Set-piece xG: 0.67; 0.04
Penalties: —; —

Millwall's shots add up to 1.51 xG and Stoke City's to 0.46; the published figures are 1.48 and 0.44.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 1.97 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Millwall
Stoke City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Millwall

1.06 xG created 1.45 xGA

D 1.03 created, 0.73 conceded against Charlton Athletic
W 0.70 created, 0.73 conceded against Watford
D 0.88 created, 1.34 conceded against Swansea City
L 1.33 created, 3.60 conceded against Coventry City
W 0.77 created, 0.42 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 1.64 created, 1.87 conceded against Queens Park Rangers

Stoke City

1.01 xG created 1.04 xGA

W 0.49 created, 0.52 conceded against Birmingham City
L 1.09 created, 1.33 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
D 1.85 created, 1.32 conceded against Norwich City
D 1.20 created, 0.61 conceded against Middlesbrough
D 0.81 created, 1.88 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
W 0.61 created, 0.59 conceded against Wrexham

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.