Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 17:00
24d 19h to kick-offHNK Rijeka – NK Varaždin
Model updated 6 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- HNK Rijeka
- 50%
- Draw
- 32%
- NK Varaždin
- 18%
| HNK Rijeka | Draw | NK Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.00 | 3.09 | 5.70 |
- Total goals
- 2.07
- Over 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score
- 44%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans HNK Rijeka
50% HNK Rijeka to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 4th
- HNK Rijeka attack v NK Varaždin defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 5th
- HNK Rijeka defence v NK Varaždin attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.68 vs +0.50
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.34 – 0.74
- HNK Rijeka v NK Varaždin
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | HNK Rijeka | NK Varaždin |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.65 · 2nd | 1.41 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.77 · 2nd | 0.88 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.88 · 2nd | +0.53 · 4th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.96 · 2nd | 1.80 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.68 | +0.50 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 43% of the model's distribution.
- HNK Rijeka clean sheet
- 45%
- HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score: no
- 56%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.2%
- 1:0
- 14.8%
- 0:0
- 12.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- HNK Rijeka sample
- 20 matches
- NK Varaždin sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · HNK Rijeka
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Varaždin
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.