Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 18:15
33d 14h to kick-offOud-Heverlee Leuven – KV Mechelen
Model updated 5 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 42%
- Draw
- 32%
- KV Mechelen
- 26%
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Draw | KV Mechelen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.38 | 3.12 | 3.86 |
- Total goals
- 2.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Oud-Heverlee Leuven
42% Oud-Heverlee Leuven to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 11th
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven attack v KV Mechelen defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 18th
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven defence v KV Mechelen attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.70 vs -0.14
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.34 – 1.03
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven v KV Mechelen
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.01 · 16th | (better) 1.22 · 13th |
| xGA / match | 1.88 · 16th | (better) 1.46 · 8th |
| xGD / match | -0.87 · 16th | (better) -0.24 · 11th |
| xPts / match | 0.86 · 18th | (better) 1.19 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.70 | (better) -0.14 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven clean sheet
- 33%
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.5%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:0
- 10.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven sample
- 20 matches
- KV Mechelen sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · KV Mechelen
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.