Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
2d 10h to kick-offCardiff City – Birmingham City
Model updated 22 October, 03:30 Top odds updated 21 October, 18:00
What the model expects
- Cardiff City
- 37%
- Draw
- 29%
- Birmingham City
- 35%
| Cardiff City | Draw | Birmingham City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.73 | 3.48 | 2.89 |
- Total goals
- 2.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 1 outcome.
-
Cardiff City
- Model
- 36.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 36.5%
- Probability gap
- +0.2 pp
- Edge
- −4.7%
- Fair odds
- 2.73
- Market odds
- 2.60 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.86
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.6%
- Probability gap
- +3.1 pp
- Edge
- +6.2%
- Fair odds
- 3.48
- Market odds
- 3.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.66
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.5%
-
Birmingham City
- Model
- 34.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 37.9%
- Probability gap
- −3.3 pp
- Edge
- −13.4%
- Fair odds
- 2.89
- Market odds
- 2.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.03
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.5%
Outcomes with an edge
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model can't separate them
37% Cardiff City to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 8th
- Cardiff City attack v Birmingham City defence
- Defence
- 20th vs 7th
- Cardiff City defence v Birmingham City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.69 vs +0.86
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.51 – 1.46
- Cardiff City v Birmingham City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Cardiff City | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.88 · 3rd | 1.77 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 1.63 · 19th | (better) 1.23 · 8th |
| xGD / match | +0.25 · 9th | (better) +0.53 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.51 · 9th | (better) 1.75 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.69 | (better) +0.86 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Cardiff City clean sheet
- 21%
- Cardiff City 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.8%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 1:2
- 9.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cardiff City sample
- 11 matches
- Birmingham City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Cardiff City
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Birmingham City
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 22/10/2026 at 03:30
- Odds updated
- 11 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.