xgEdge

Expected goals

Burnley expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Championship · after 11 matches · updated 21 Oct

Burnley's attacking and defensive expected goals in Championship 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Burnley xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.23 xG per match
#17/24
Attack (xG per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 West Ham United 2.16
#2 Middlesbrough 1.98
#3 Cardiff City 1.88
#4 Millwall 1.85
#5 Southampton 1.83
#6 Birmingham City 1.77
#7 Wolverhampton 1.71
#8 Swansea City 1.60
#9 Queens Park Rangers 1.50
#10 Norwich City 1.47
#11 Bolton Wanderers 1.40
#12 Portsmouth 1.35
#13 Bristol City 1.32
#14 West Bromwich Albion 1.29
#15 Lincoln City 1.25
#16 Preston North End 1.24
#17 Burnley 1.23
#18 Watford 1.13
#19 Wrexham 1.12
#20 Sheffield United 1.06
#21 Charlton Athletic 1.00
#22 Blackburn Rovers 0.98
#23 Derby County 0.96
#24 Stoke City 0.90
League avg
1.42
Total
13.49 11 matches
Defence
1.62 xGA per match
#18/24
Defence (xGA per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Wolverhampton 0.99
#2 Middlesbrough 1.02
#3 Swansea City 1.14
#4 Portsmouth 1.17
=5 West Ham United 1.18
=5 Wrexham 1.18
#7 Queens Park Rangers 1.20
#8 Birmingham City 1.23
#9 Southampton 1.31
#10 Bristol City 1.35
#11 Millwall 1.37
#12 Lincoln City 1.37
#13 West Bromwich Albion 1.44
#14 Preston North End 1.46
#15 Sheffield United 1.49
#16 Charlton Athletic 1.57
#17 Norwich City 1.60
#18 Burnley 1.62
#19 Cardiff City 1.63
#20 Derby County 1.65
#21 Bolton Wanderers 1.69
#22 Stoke City 1.71
#23 Blackburn Rovers 1.72
#24 Watford 1.88
League avg
1.42
Total
17.86 11 matches
xG difference
-0.40 xGD per match
#18/24
xG difference (xGD per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 West Ham United +0.99
#2 Middlesbrough +0.96
#3 Wolverhampton +0.73
#4 Birmingham City +0.53
#5 Southampton +0.53
#6 Millwall +0.48
#7 Swansea City +0.46
#8 Queens Park Rangers +0.30
#9 Cardiff City +0.25
#10 Portsmouth +0.18
#11 Bristol City -0.03
#12 Wrexham -0.05
#13 Lincoln City -0.13
#14 Norwich City -0.14
#15 West Bromwich Albion -0.15
#16 Preston North End -0.22
#17 Bolton Wanderers -0.30
#18 Burnley -0.40
#19 Sheffield United -0.43
#20 Charlton Athletic -0.57
#21 Derby County -0.69
#22 Blackburn Rovers -0.74
#23 Watford -0.75
#24 Stoke City -0.81
League avg
0.00
Total
-4.37 11 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.05 xPts per match
#20/24
Expected points (xPts per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Middlesbrough 2.03
#2 Wolverhampton 1.90
#3 West Ham United 1.89
#4 Birmingham City 1.75
#5 Southampton 1.73
#6 Millwall 1.68
#7 Swansea City 1.63
#8 Queens Park Rangers 1.61
#9 Cardiff City 1.51
#10 Portsmouth 1.51
#11 Bristol City 1.44
#12 Wrexham 1.40
#13 Lincoln City 1.37
#14 Norwich City 1.26
#15 West Bromwich Albion 1.25
#16 Preston North End 1.20
#17 Bolton Wanderers 1.15
#18 Derby County 1.07
#19 Sheffield United 1.07
#20 Burnley 1.05
#21 Charlton Athletic 1.00
#22 Stoke City 0.91
#23 Blackburn Rovers 0.89
#24 Watford 0.88
League avg
1.38
Total
11.60 vs 8 actual pts

What the xG says

Burnley's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Championship. They rank #18 for xG difference at -0.40 per match, from about average shot volume at low chance quality. Their 16 goals are 2.51 above 13.49 xG, while 8 points are 3.60 below 11.60 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.34 xG from penalties
16 13.49 +2.51 scored 2.51 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
21 17.86 +3.14 conceded 3.14 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 11.60 -3.60 3.60 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Burnley are 2.51 goals above their xG after 11 matches.

Goals
16
xG
13.49
Gap
+2.51
Sun 16/08 Sun 23/08 Sat 29/08 Wed 02/09 Sat 05/09 Tue 08/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 Sat 10/10 Tue 13/10 Fri 16/10 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -0.33 -0.51 -0.89 -0.53 +0.21 -0.29 -1.02 -0.47 +1.59 +2.51 +2.51 -0.33 -0.18 -0.38 +0.36 +0.74 -0.50 -0.73 +0.55 +2.06 +0.92 +0.00 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Burnley: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 16/08 West Ham United 2 2.33 -0.33 -0.33
Sun 23/08 West Bromwich Albion 1 1.18 -0.18 -0.51
Sat 29/08 Norwich City 1 1.38 -0.38 -0.89
Wed 02/09 Middlesbrough 1 0.64 +0.36 -0.53
Sat 05/09 Bristol City 1 0.26 +0.74 +0.21
Tue 08/09 Wrexham 1 1.50 -0.50 -0.29
Sat 12/09 Swansea City 1 1.73 -0.73 -1.02
Sat 19/09 Derby County 1 0.45 +0.55 -0.47
Sat 10/10 Watford 4 1.94 +2.06 +1.59
Tue 13/10 Charlton Athletic 2 1.08 +0.92 +2.51
Fri 16/10 Wolverhampton 1 1.00 +0.00 +2.51

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Burnley xG trend

Current form -0.29 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 11 matches. The worst was against Charlton Athletic on Tue 13/10 (-1.05).

npxG · last 6
1.29
npxGA · last 6
1.58
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 -0.01 Sun 16/08 +0.47 Sun 23/08 -0.97 Sat 29/08 -0.58 Wed 02/09 -0.69 Sat 05/09 +0.21 Tue 08/09 -0.60 Sat 12/09 -0.74 Sat 19/09 +1.28 Sat 10/10 -1.05 Tue 13/10 -0.83 Fri 16/10 -0.32 season avg
Burnley: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 16/08 West Ham United 1.29 1.30 -0.01 -0.01
Sun 23/08 West Bromwich Albion 1.32 0.85 +0.47 +0.23
Sat 29/08 Norwich City 0.95 1.92 -0.97 -0.17
Wed 02/09 Middlesbrough 0.64 1.22 -0.58 -0.27
Sat 05/09 Bristol City 0.20 0.89 -0.69 -0.36
Tue 08/09 Wrexham 1.50 1.29 +0.21 -0.26
Sat 12/09 Swansea City 1.79 2.39 -0.60 -0.31
Sat 19/09 Derby County 0.49 1.23 -0.74 -0.36
Sat 10/10 Watford 1.89 0.61 +1.28 -0.18
Tue 13/10 Charlton Athletic 1.08 2.13 -1.05 -0.27
Fri 16/10 Wolverhampton 1.00 1.83 -0.83 -0.32

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.10 npxG and 1.42 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 4 hardest of 24 in Championship
+0.06 xG vs league average
Over 11 league matches
Last 5
tied number 21 hardest of 24 in Championship
−0.09 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.06 xG vs league average · over 11 matches · tied number 4 hardest of 24

  1. Wolverhampton Home +0.43
  2. Charlton Athletic Home −0.40
  3. Watford Away −0.39
  4. Derby County Home −0.21
  5. Swansea City Away +0.14
  6. Wrexham Away −0.05
  7. Bristol City Home −0.11
  8. Middlesbrough Home +0.74
  9. Norwich City Away +0.02
  10. West Bromwich Albion Away −0.01
  11. West Ham United Home +0.50

Last 5

−0.09 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 21 hardest of 24

  1. Wolverhampton Home +0.43
  2. Charlton Athletic Home −0.40
  3. Watford Away −0.39
  4. Derby County Home −0.21
  5. Swansea City Away +0.14

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Burnley shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. Burnley take 14.3 shots a match (league 13.5) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =8 in Championship for volume and #22 for quality. 57% of their shots come from inside the box (league 67%), and set pieces produce 18% of their npxG (league 28%).

Attack

Shot volume
14.3 shots per match
=8/24
Shot volume (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Middlesbrough 19.1
#2 Cardiff City 17.2
#3 West Ham United 16.3
#4 Wolverhampton 16.2
#5 Portsmouth 15.3
#6 Southampton 15.2
#7 Queens Park Rangers 15.1
=8 Burnley 14.3
=8 Millwall 14.3
#10 Bristol City 14.0
#11 Norwich City 13.9
#12 Bolton Wanderers 13.8
#13 Birmingham City 13.7
#14 Watford 13.0
#15 Derby County 12.7
=16 Preston North End 12.1
=16 Swansea City 12.1
=18 Lincoln City 11.5
=18 West Bromwich Albion 11.5
=20 Stoke City 11.4
=20 Wrexham 11.4
#22 Blackburn Rovers 11.2
#23 Charlton Athletic 10.2
#24 Sheffield United 9.4
League avg
13.5
Total
157 shots from 11 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#22/24
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Swansea City 0.13
#2 Millwall 0.12
#3 Birmingham City 0.12
#4 West Ham United 0.12
#5 Southampton 0.11
#6 Sheffield United 0.11
#7 Middlesbrough 0.10
#8 Charlton Athletic 0.10
#9 Cardiff City 0.10
#10 Wrexham 0.10
#11 Wolverhampton 0.10
#12 West Bromwich Albion 0.10
#13 Preston North End 0.09
#14 Queens Park Rangers 0.09
#15 Lincoln City 0.09
#16 Norwich City 0.09
#17 Bristol City 0.09
#18 Bolton Wanderers 0.09
#19 Watford 0.08
#20 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#21 Portsmouth 0.08
#22 Burnley 0.08
#23 Derby County 0.07
#24 Stoke City 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
12.15 npxG from 157 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.1 shots per match
#14/24
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Swansea City 10.8
#2 Wolverhampton 10.9
=3 Middlesbrough 11.0
=3 Portsmouth 11.0
=5 West Bromwich Albion 11.5
=5 West Ham United 11.5
#7 Wrexham 11.6
=8 Birmingham City 11.7
=8 Queens Park Rangers 11.7
#10 Bristol City 12.0
#11 Norwich City 12.5
#12 Bolton Wanderers 12.8
#13 Millwall 13.5
#14 Burnley 14.1
#15 Derby County 14.2
#16 Southampton 14.7
#17 Cardiff City 15.1
#18 Preston North End 15.8
=19 Sheffield United 15.9
=19 Watford 15.9
#21 Stoke City 16.2
#22 Lincoln City 16.4
#23 Blackburn Rovers 16.8
#24 Charlton Athletic 17.1
League avg
13.5
Total
155 shots allowed from 11 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#19/24
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Southampton 0.08
#2 Charlton Athletic 0.08
#3 Lincoln City 0.08
#4 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#5 Wolverhampton 0.08
#6 Sheffield United 0.09
#7 West Ham United 0.09
#8 Preston North End 0.09
#9 Millwall 0.09
#10 Middlesbrough 0.09
#11 Stoke City 0.09
#12 Swansea City 0.09
#13 Wrexham 0.09
#14 Cardiff City 0.10
#15 Bristol City 0.10
#16 Portsmouth 0.10
#17 Queens Park Rangers 0.10
#18 Birmingham City 0.10
#19 Burnley 0.10
#20 Watford 0.11
#21 Derby County 0.11
#22 West Bromwich Albion 0.12
#23 Norwich City 0.13
#24 Bolton Wanderers 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
15.66 npxGA from 155 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

57% inside the box

League avg 67%

From 90 of 157 shots over 11 matches

Shots allowed, location

67% allowed inside the box

League avg 67%

From 104 of 155 shots allowed over 11 matches

Where the npxG comes from

82% open play · 18% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 2.1 of 12.1 npxG over 11 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

64% open play · 36% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 5.7 of 15.6 npxG allowed over 11 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Burnley home and away xG

Burnley per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 6 5
xG / match 0.96 1.55
xGA / match 1.55 1.71
xGD / match -0.59 -0.16
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.86 1.29

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Burnley match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
5
xG / match
1.55
xGA / match
1.71
xGD / match
-0.16
Points
4 of 15
  1. Sat 10/10 Watford A Best underlying xG 1.94 xGA 0.64 xGD +1.30
  2. Sat 12/09 Swansea City A xG 1.73 xGA 2.63 xGD -0.90
  3. Tue 08/09 Wrexham A xG 1.50 xGA 1.35 xGD +0.15
  4. Sat 29/08 Norwich City A Weakest underlying xG 1.38 xGA 2.30 xGD -0.92
  5. Sun 23/08 West Bromwich Albion A xG 1.18 xGA 1.63 P xGD -0.45

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Burnley in Championship

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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