Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 20:45
12d 23h to kick-offDerby County – Norwich City
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Derby County
- 34%
- Draw
- 32%
- Norwich City
- 34%
| Derby County | Draw | Norwich City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.96 | 3.15 | 2.90 |
- Total goals
- 2.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
34% Norwich City to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 17th
- Norwich City attack v Derby County defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 16th
- Norwich City defence v Derby County attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.89 vs -0.16
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.25 – 1.26
- Derby County v Norwich City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Derby County | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.96 · 23rd | (better) 1.47 · 10th |
| xGA / match | 1.65 · 20th | (better) 1.60 · 17th |
| xGD / match | -0.69 · 21st | (better) -0.14 · 14th |
| xPts / match | 1.07 · 18th | (better) 1.26 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.16 | -0.89 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Norwich City clean sheet
- 26%
- Norwich City 2+ goals
- 37%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.3%
- 1:2
- 9.5%
- 2:1
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Derby County sample
- 20 matches
- Norwich City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Derby County
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Norwich City
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.