Tuesday, 10/03/2026 at 20:45
Full timeMillwall 1:0 Derby County
Goals
- 43' Josh Coburn Millwall · 0.51 xG chance 1–0
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 14
- On target
- 4
- 1
- Inside the box
- 10
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 0.53
- 0.95
- Set-piece xG
- 0.91
- 0.33
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.45 for Millwall and 1.25 for Derby County.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 2.71 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Millwall
- Derby County
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.20 xG created 1.12 xGA
- W 0.58 created, 1.53 conceded against Wrexham
- W 1.92 created, 0.92 conceded against Sheffield Wednesday
- L 0.42 created, 1.22 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 1.21 created, 0.12 conceded against Birmingham City
- W 1.66 created, 0.43 conceded against Preston North End
- W 1.38 created, 2.51 conceded against Hull City
1.55 xG created 0.92 xGA
- L 1.03 created, 1.27 conceded against Ipswich Town
- W 0.80 created, 1.00 conceded against Swansea City
- L 0.65 created, 1.29 conceded against Watford
- L 3.27 created, 0.58 conceded against Hull City
- W 1.44 created, 0.65 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- W 2.11 created, 0.74 conceded against Sheffield Wednesday
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Model details
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The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.