Saturday, 28/11/2026 at 16:00
37d 11h to kick-offBirmingham City – Bolton Wanderers
Model updated 22 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Birmingham City
- 47%
- Draw
- 29%
- Bolton Wanderers
- 23%
| Birmingham City | Draw | Bolton Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.11 | 3.42 | 4.30 |
- Total goals
- 2.68
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Birmingham City
47% Birmingham City to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 14th
- Birmingham City attack v Bolton Wanderers defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 10th
- Birmingham City defence v Bolton Wanderers attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.86 vs -0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.59 – 1.09
- Birmingham City v Bolton Wanderers
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Birmingham City | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.77 · 6th | 1.40 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.23 · 8th | 1.69 · 21st |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.53 · 4th | -0.30 · 17th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.75 · 4th | 1.15 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.86 | -0.07 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Birmingham City clean sheet
- 31%
- Birmingham City 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 2:0
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Birmingham City sample
- 20 matches
- Bolton Wanderers sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · Birmingham City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Bolton Wanderers
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 22/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.