Wednesday, 25/11/2026 at 21:00
34d 18h to kick-offStoke City – Millwall
Model updated 22 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Stoke City
- 24%
- Draw
- 30%
- Millwall
- 46%
| Stoke City | Draw | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.15 | 3.35 | 2.17 |
- Total goals
- 2.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Millwall
46% Millwall to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 21st
- Millwall attack v Stoke City defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 24th
- Millwall defence v Stoke City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.37 vs -1.01
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.09 – 1.54
- Stoke City v Millwall
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Stoke City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.90 · 24th | (better) 1.85 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.71 · 22nd | (better) 1.37 · 11th |
| xGD / match | -0.81 · 24th | (better) +0.48 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 0.91 · 22nd | (better) 1.68 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.01 | (better) +0.37 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Millwall clean sheet
- 30%
- Millwall 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 1:2
- 11.1%
- 0:1
- 8.6%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Stoke City sample
- 20 matches
- Millwall sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Stoke City
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Millwall
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 22/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.